On October 28, during the BIR Paper Division meeting in Bangkok, Thailand, industry experts discussed the challenges and emerging trends shaping the global recovered paper and paper production markets. The session covered regional supply–demand dynamics, the impact of rising energy and transportation costs, exchange rate volatility, and the implications of tightening regulations. The program also featured the introduction of a new digital auction platform called “Guard.”
The session was chaired by Francisco Donoso, Divisional President of DOLAF Servicios Verdes (Spain). Mr. Donoso emphasized that the global recovered paper market continues to face significant instability, warning that market volatility is reverberating across the entire value chain — from production and consumption to logistics and foreign exchange.
The first speaker in the Paper Division session was Simone Scaramuzzi, Sales and Purchasing Director at LCI (Italy), who reported on the challenges facing recovered paper exports from Europe to Asia. He explained that, while Europe continues to expand its paper production capacity, the availability of recovered fiber used as raw material is declining, resulting in intensifying competition with Asian mills. Stricter EU controls on waste exports, increasingly complex documentation procedures, and fluctuations in ocean freight costs and services are further constraining exports, prompting suppliers to priorities domestic markets to mitigate risk.
In 2025, prices have moderately recovered on the back of rising demand for high-quality recovered fiber. Nevertheless, the market remains volatile, oscillating between phases of increased export demand from Asia and periods of strong intra-European consumption driven by higher energy and transportation costs.
The next speaker was Ranjit Baxi, CEO of H & H Sales International (UK) and former President of BIR. He highlighted that India is currently the fastest-growing paper market in the world, recording a compound annual growth rate exceeding 7.5%. Growth is being fueled by rising literacy rates, the expansion of the middle class, and strong development across sectors such as healthcare, hospitality and e-commerce. However, India’s domestic collection system remains fragmented, leaving the country highly dependent on imports. Baxi noted that the basic customs duty on imported paper is 2.5% and that imports account for roughly 60% of total consumption. He added that the industry is lobbying the government to reduce the duty to zero to encourage investment in collection infrastructure. Foreign investment in India continues to increase, and domestic collection efficiency is expected to improve over the next five to seven years.
The third speaker, Jun Park, a recovered paper trader at VIPA Lausanne SA (Switzerland), reported that China’s new import requirements for dry pulp — implemented in early October 2025 — have caused significant disruption across the market. The regulation aims to prevent contamination in imported recycled pulp by rejecting shipments containing more than 0.5% impurities. As a result, China has put full inspections in place at all ports, creating severe congestion, with 3,000 to 4,000 containers currently stuck.
China imports roughly 4–5 million tons of dry pulp annually, with Thailand among its largest suppliers. Dry pulp processors emerged as a relatively new segment of the recovered paper market following China’s “National Sword” policy banning wastepaper imports, with producers in Thailand and Malaysia manufacturing dry pulp for the Chinese market. Park explained that the new requirements represent China’s move to define clear standards for a product that previously operated in a regulatory grey zone and warned that Thai exporters will likely face the most severe short-term impact.
He also noted that the shutdown of informal small-scale paper mills in Vietnam has temporarily eased supply pressure in the region, while ongoing uncertainty around Chinese policy continues to heighten market volatility and intensify price competition in Malaysia and Thailand.
The final speaker of the session, Brian Reese, Sales Manager at Canusa Hershman Recycling (USA), discussed the steep decline in US exports of OCC (old corrugated containers) to Southeast Asia. He observed that domestic recycling rates have fallen, and new containerboard mills are consuming greater amounts of recovered fiber internally, putting additional pressure on export availability. With overall OCC generation decreasing and a larger share of supply staying within the US market, Asian mills — already struggling with structural overcapacity — are experiencing tightening margins. According to Mr. Reese, ongoing port congestion, freight price volatility, and continued US–China trade frictions and tariff uncertainty also continue to complicate export operations. Despite this, he suggested that the next market cycle could be more favorable.
To conclude the session, Mr. Donoso introduced Guard — the Global Auction for Recovered Paper, a new digital trading platform scheduled to launch in December 2025. The platform will facilitate weekly 30-minute online auctions for recovered paper and containerboard, offering real-time bidding, anonymous participation, standardized quality specifications and secure transactions. Guard aims to improve transparency, fairness and speed in global recovered paper trading, connecting suppliers, customers and brokers of all sizes around the world. Donoso described the platform as a solution to chronic market fragmentation, inefficiency and lack of visibility, positioning it as a new structural foundation for the industry.
Throughout the presentations, participants reaffirmed that external factors — regulation, logistics and foreign exchange volatility — continue to be the decisive forces shaping the global paper and recovered paper markets. Although instability remains, technological innovation and the restructuring of trading practices are laying a pathway toward recovery and future stabilization. The session concluded with a shared understanding that patience and discipline will be essential for the market to return to a sustainable growth trajectory.
Following the session, Mr. Tamamachi, CEO of IRuniverse, interviewed former BIR President and H & H Sales International CEO Ranjit Baxi for further insight into market dynamics and the medium-term outlook. Mr. Baxi explained that international trading in recovered materials has been significantly affected since 2024 by both logistics cost inflation and policy-driven constraints. The temporary shutdown of ports during the COVID-19 pandemic ignited a global logistics crisis and triggered an unprecedented spike in container freight rates. Although nominal freight prices have since declined in certain lanes, Baxi emphasized that associated fees — including rising Suez Canal transit charges and sharply shortened free-time allowances — have kept total transport costs elevated.
He added that structural shifts in global trade routes are now unmistakable. US exports of recovered paper to China have declined under tariff pressure, while China’s tightened import controls have forced a reorganization of traditional supply chains. Japan — once a major exporter of 3–4 million tons of recovered paper to China annually — has effectively lost access to that market. Japanese suppliers are increasingly turning to Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam, which is expanding its capacity to reprocess recovered fiber into recycled pulp and containerboard for re-export. Japanese companies are exploring partnerships to build new trade corridors, yet Baxi warned that rising logistics costs remain a major obstacle, compressing margins even as market diversification advances. Securing stable and cost-efficient transport will be essential for sustained industry growth.
Mr. Baxi concluded by stating that the global distribution framework for recyclable resources is now undergoing an active phase of reconfiguration. Whether Japan and other exporting countries can successfully pivot away from dependence on China and build new supply chains prioritizing quality, efficiency and transparency will determine the next phase of market expansion.
(IRuniverse Midori Fushimi)
