Related Article
https://www.iru-miru.com/article/81934
Overview
Export volume increased modestly from the previous month after two consecutive monthly declines.
Compared with the same month last year, volume also edged higher, though the market remains at a relatively low level.
TTS Exchange Rate Trend (3-Month)
Detailed Analysis
■Volume Basis
February 2026 exports totaled 736 tons, increasing from 626 tons in January.
• 118% m/m
• 105% y/y
Cumulative exports for January–February reached 1,362 tons, or 58% y/y, still sharply below the same period last year.
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Major Destinations
India
Exports to India totaled 326 tons, maintaining its position as the largest destination, though down from 515 tons in January.
• 63% m/m
• 202% y/y
January–February cumulative volume reached 841 tons, or 146% y/y.
→ India remains the core market, though its monthly share declined.
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Malaysia
Exports to Malaysia rose sharply to 134 tons from 9 tons in January.
• 1,489% m/m
• 140% y/y
January–February cumulative volume reached 143 tons, or 46% y/y.
→ Temporary recovery in shipments, re-emerging as a supplementary market.
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Cambodia
Zero tons (unchanged from January).
January–February cumulative: zero tons.
→ Spot demand remains absent.
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Pakistan
Zero tons (unchanged from January).
January–February cumulative: zero tons.
→ Shipment suspension continues.
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Laos
No shipments recorded again.
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Others
Exports totaled 276 tons, increasing from 102 tons in January.
• 271% m/m
• 81% y/y
January–February cumulative volume reached 378 tons, or 28% y/y.
→ Supplementary shipments to miscellaneous destinations increased.
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Summary
February exports recovered from January and returned to the 700-ton range.
→ Compared with January’s India-heavy concentration, exports became more diversified as Malaysia and Others increased.
However, cumulative January–February volume remained only 58% y/y, indicating the overall market is still subdued.
The current market can therefore be characterized as:
“A low-level recovery phase led by India, accompanied by partial revival in peripheral markets.”
(Table 1, Graph 1)
■Export Share by Destination (Previous Month → Current Month)
• India: 82% → 44%
• Malaysia: 1% → 18%
• Cambodia: 0% → 0%
• Pakistan: 0% → 0%
• Laos: 0% → 0%
• Others: 16% → 38%
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Additional Notes
India remained the largest destination in February, but its share declined sharply to 44%, marking a significant retreat from January’s one-market concentration.
Meanwhile:
• Malaysia recovered to 18%
• Others expanded to 38%
→ Export destinations became more diversified, temporarily shifting away from January’s India-dependent structure toward a multi-market pattern.
However, Cambodia, Pakistan, and Laos remained inactive, meaning no stable new market base has yet formed.
→ The underlying structure therefore remains:
“India-led demand with volatile supplementary support from peripheral markets.”
(Graph 2)
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■Value Basis
February 2026 export value totaled ¥184 million, a slight increase from ¥179 million in January.
• 103% m/m
• 100% y/y
January–February cumulative export value reached ¥364 million, or 56% y/y, still well below the previous year.
Breakdown
India
¥94 million
• 63% m/m
• 220% y/y
→ Down from January but still the largest destination.
Malaysia
¥21 million
• 1,096% m/m
• 117% y/y
→ Strong rebound from January’s extremely low level.
Others
¥69 million
• 250% m/m
• 69% y/y
→ Significant increase, supporting total exports.
Cambodia / Pakistan / Laos
No shipments recorded.
Cumulative Breakdown (January–February)
• India: ¥244 million (153% y/y)
• Malaysia: ¥23 million (33% y/y)
• Others: ¥97 million (24% y/y)
• Total: ¥364 million (56% y/y)
→ Only India exceeded last year’s level, while weakness in other markets weighed on the cumulative total.
Summary
Export value in February rose slightly from the previous month and returned to roughly the same level as February last year.
.
Although India declined from January, rebounds to Malaysia and Others helped support the market.
However, cumulative January–February value remained only 56% y/y, indicating continued weakness overall.
→ In value terms as well, the market remains:
“India-led, with peripheral markets still in a recovery phase.”
(Table 2, Graph 3)
■FOB Trends
Average FOB fell sharply from ¥287/kg in January to ¥250/kg in February.
Major Destinations
• India: ¥291 → ¥287/kg (slight decline)
• Malaysia: ¥216 → ¥159/kg (sharp decline)
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External Environment
While the yen remained weak, yen-denominated unit prices entered a deeper correction phase.
Meanwhile:
• LME Lead: $1,998 → $1,916/t, down m/m
Summary
Average FOB declined significantly in February, with softer prices across major destinations.
Malaysia posted the steepest fall, dragging down the total average.
At the same time, LME lead prices also declined, meaning lower international prices and lower yen-denominated export prices progressed simultaneously.
This appears attributable to:
• Correction after elevated prices at the start of the year
• Increase in lower-priced contract cargoes
• Change in destination mix (higher Malaysia / Others share)
→ February can be viewed as a month in which export price correction became clearly visible.
(Graph 4)
LME Lead Price Trend (USD/T, 6 Months)
Crude Lead (Bullion) International Price Trend (USD/T, 3 Months)
Volume and FOB (JPY/kg) Results by Major Customs Offices (figures in parentheses indicate the previous month)
Volume and FOB (JPY/kg) Results by Major Destination Countries / Customs Offices (figures in parentheses indicate the previous month)
■Outlook
India Dependence Continues, but Concentration Moderates
India remains the largest market in both volume and value terms. However, higher shares to Malaysia and Others in February slightly reduced one-market concentration.
Volumes Shift Toward Low-Level but More Diversified Flows
Total exports remain low, but with shipments spread across more destinations, monthly fluctuations may become larger than before.
Prices Enter Correction Phase
Average FOB has fallen to ¥250/kg, suggesting a pullback from elevated early-year levels. A near-term range of ¥250–280/kg appears likely.
External Environment Slightly Softer
LME lead has retreated, reducing support from global pricing. Continued yen weakness may provide downside support, but external drivers alone appear insufficient for a major rebound.
Biggest Risk Remains Demand Concentration
Although India’s share declined, it is still the largest market. Any slowdown or suspension of Indian procurement would still risk a sharp contraction in the overall market.
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→Overall
“A low-level market where India remains the core buyer while destination diversification gradually progresses, with prices entering a post-rally range-trading phase.”
（IRUNIVERSE S. Aoyama）
