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https://www.iru-miru.com/article/82636
(Overview)
Export volume declined slightly from the previous month.In March 2026, exports totaled 680 tons, representing m/m 92% compared with 736 tons in February, slipping slightly after the recovery seen in February.
Meanwhile, compared with the same month last year, exports reached y/y 94%, approaching year-ago levels but still remaining slightly below them. Overall, the market continued to move within a relatively low range.
TTS Exchange Rate Trend (3 Months)
(Detailed Analysis)
【In terms of volume】
Exports in March 2026 totaled 680 tons, representing m/m 92% compared with 736 tons in the previous month, marking a slight decline. Compared with the same month a year earlier (723 tons), exports stood at y/y 94%, also showing a modest decrease.
The January–March cumulative total reached 2,042 tons, equivalent to y/y 67%, indicating that export levels remained comparatively weak versus the same period last year.
■ By major destination
● Exports to India recovered to 484 tons, reaching m/m 148% and y/y 146%, maintaining its position as the principal destination.
The January–March cumulative total reached 1,325 tons (y/y 146%).
● Exports to Malaysia fell back to zero tons (134 tons in the previous month).
● Other destinations totaled 196 tons, representing m/m 71% and y/y 50%.
■ Summary
Although the recovery in shipments to India supported exports in March, the disappearance of shipments to Malaysia kept the overall market broadly unchanged. Structurally, the market reverted to an “India-concentrated” pattern once again.
(Table 1, Graph 1)
Graph 1: Lead Scrap Export Volume (Tons)
【In terms of destination share, from the previous month → current month】
• India: 44% → 71%, rising again and reinforcing its position as the dominant destination.
• Malaysia: 18% → 0%, disappearing entirely.
• Cambodia / Pakistan / Laos: 0% → 0% (no shipments recorded).
• Others: 38% → 29%, declining.
■ Supplementary observations
In March, the share of exports to India recovered to more than 70%, while the diversification trend observed in February retreated.
With shipments to Malaysia falling back to zero, the structure reverted to an “India-led + supplementary other destinations” pattern. Peripheral markets remain intermittent, and export structures continue to show instability.
(Graph 2)
Graph 2: Country-by-Country Composition of Lead Scrap Exports (%)
【 In value terms】
Exports in March 2026 totaled JPY 172 million, representing m/m 93% compared with JPY 184 million in February, showing a slight decline.
Compared with the same month a year earlier (JPY 207 million), exports stood at y/y 83%, remaining below the prior-year level.
Shipments to India, the principal destination, increased to JPY 142 million (m/m 152%, y/y 155%), while exports to Malaysia fell to zero. Exports to other destinations also declined to JPY 30 million (m/m 43%), weighing on the overall total.
The January–March cumulative value reached JPY 535 million, equivalent to y/y 63%.
While exports to India alone maintained a level above the previous year at 154%, sluggish shipments to Malaysia and other destinations remained a drag, leaving the structure characterized by “India-centered demand amid overall weakness.”
(Table 2, Graph 3)
【 FOB Trend】
The overall average FOB price rose slightly from JPY 250/kg → JPY 253/kg.
■ By major destination
• India: JPY 287/kg → JPY 294/kg, rebounding modestly.
• Malaysia: No shipments recorded (JPY 159/kg in the previous month).
■ External Environment
Although the yen remained weak, supporting export pricing in yen terms, the international market softened.
Meanwhile:
• LME Lead: USD 1,916/t → USD 1,880/t, declining further.
■ Summary
In March, the overall FOB price recovered slightly after the adjustment seen in February, led primarily by the rebound in prices to India.
However, despite the continued depreciation of the yen, LME lead prices declined, limiting upward momentum in export prices. As a result, the rise in yen-denominated FOB remained modest.
This movement appears to reflect:
• A reaction following February’s price adjustment
• A higher share of India-bound shipments
• Individual contract conditions and destination mix changes
Accordingly, March can be characterized as a month of modest price stabilization following adjustment.
(Graph 4)
Graph 4: LME Lead Price Trend (USD/Ton, 3 Months)
Major Customs-Based Export Volume and FOB Performance
(Figures in parentheses indicate the previous month’s performance)
Export Volume and FOB Performance by Major Destination (JPY/Kg)
(Figures in parentheses indicate the previous month’s performance)
【 Outlook】
• India-led demand is likely to continue
India remains the core market, although export concentration may fluctuate month to month.
• Volume expected to remain range-bound at low levels
Given the lack of stable alternative destinations, exports are likely to fluctuate within a limited range.
• Prices may stabilize after adjustment
With FOB recovering slightly in March, prices are expected to move within a JPY 250–280/kg range for the time being.
• External conditions remain mixed
Although yen weakness offers downside support, softer LME lead prices may limit upside momentum.
• Key risk remains demand concentration
A slowdown or suspension in Indian procurement would continue to pose a major downside risk to the overall market.
Overall Assessment
The most likely near-term scenario remains:
“A low-level market centered on India, with intermittent diversification and range-bound pricing after adjustment.”
(IRUNIVERSE S. Aoyama)
