Exports Adjust as China Slows While South Korea Recovers; Tight Feedstock Supply Keeps Prices Firm
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TTS Exchange Rate Trend (Three-Month) 
Detailed Analysis
Detailed Analysis of Crude Lead Containing Antimony (HS 7801.91)
Volume Analysis
On a volume basis, exports of HS7801.91 (crude lead containing antimony) totaled 2,243 tonnes in May 2026, down sharply to 67% of the previous month's 3,346 tonnes, marking the first decline in two months. Nevertheless, exports remained 105% of the 2,133 tonnes recorded in May 2025, staying slightly above the year-earlier level. Cumulative exports for January–May reached 12,838 tonnes, representing 114% of the corresponding period last year and maintaining year-on-year growth.
By destination, exports to China fell sharply to 810 tonnes (54% m/m), but China remained the largest export market. Shipments to South Korea recovered to 792 tonnes (115% m/m), significantly narrowing the gap with China. Exports to Taiwan declined to 419 tonnes (80% m/m), while shipments to India dropped sharply to 222 tonnes (34% m/m), with the decline to India particularly notable.
Overall, lower shipments to China were only partly offset by the recovery in exports to South Korea. As exports to both Taiwan and India also declined, total export volume underwent a significant adjustment from the previous month. (Table 1, Figure 1)
Share of Export Volume by Destination
The destination mix changed noticeably from April to May. Although China's share declined from 44% to 36%, it remained the largest export market. Meanwhile, South Korea's share increased sharply from 21% to 35%, substantially narrowing the gap with China. Taiwan's share also rose from 16% to 19%, while India's share dropped significantly from 19% to 10%.
Overall, dependence on China eased somewhat during May as South Korea and Taiwan accounted for larger shares of total exports. At the same time, the sharp decline in shipments to India resulted in a more balanced export structure centered on China and South Korea, rather than the China-dominated pattern seen in previous months. (Figure 2)
Value Analysis
In value terms, exports of HS7801.91 totaled JPY 663 million in May 2026, down to 67% of the previous month's JPY 997 million, reflecting the decline in shipment volume. Nevertheless, export value remained 115% of May 2025 (JPY 577 million). Cumulative exports for January–May reached JPY 3.833 billion, equivalent to 118% of the year-earlier level.
By destination, China remained the largest market at JPY 245 million, although this represented a sharp decline to 55% of the previous month. In contrast, exports to South Korea increased to JPY 232 million (114% m/m), nearly matching China's value. Shipments to Taiwan fell to JPY 121 million (81% m/m), while exports to India dropped sharply to JPY 65 million (34% m/m).
Overall, weaker exports to China and India outweighed the recovery in shipments to South Korea, resulting in a broad-based decline in total export value. (Table 2)
FOB Trend
The average FOB export price edged up from JPY 294/kg in April to JPY 296/kg in May, remaining close to the JPY300/kg level. Among major destinations, China rose slightly from JPY302/kg to JPY303/kg, while South Korea eased from JPY295/kg to JPY292/kg. Taiwan increased marginally from JPY287/kg to JPY289/kg, whereas India softened from JPY299/kg to JPY294/kg.
External market conditions improved during the month. LME lead advanced from USD1,922.65/tonne in April to USD1,991.03/tonne in May, while the international bullion price increased from USD1,824.33/tonne to USD1,889.38/tonne. At the same time, the Japanese yen strengthened modestly against the U.S. dollar, partially offsetting the positive impact of higher international lead prices on yen-denominated export prices.
Despite the stronger yen, the average FOB price remained firm and even posted a slight increase, suggesting that higher international lead prices and resilient pricing for exports to China continued to provide support. Overall, May can be characterized as a month in which export prices held steady despite currency headwinds, indicating that the market remained in a firm price environment. (Figure 3)
Three-Month International Bullion Price Trend (USD/T)
Major Customs Export Volumes and FOB Prices (JPY/kg)
(Figures in parentheses indicate the previous month.)
Major Export Destinations: Volume and FOB (JPY/kg)
(Figures in parentheses indicate the previous month.)
Outlook
Exports of HS7801.91 crude lead containing antimony are expected to remain at relatively high levels, led primarily by demand from China and South Korea. Although exports to China declined in May, South Korea recovered sharply, while both countries together continued to account for more than 70% of total shipments.
Domestically, lead battery scrap prices have climbed further into the JPY120/kg range, reflecting intensifying competition for feedstock among smelters and crude lead producers. Combined with firmer international lead and bullion prices, these supply conditions should continue to underpin export demand.
Although the appreciation of the yen may temporarily limit gains in yen-denominated FOB prices, sustained tightness in raw material supply is expected to keep FOB prices around the JPY300/kg level. The principal downside risk remains any significant change in procurement policies or import regulations in China and South Korea, given their dominant share in Japan's export market.
Detailed Analysis of Other Crude Lead (HS 7801.99)
Volume Analysis
On a volume basis, exports of HS7801.99 (Other Crude Lead) totaled 3,439 tonnes in May 2026, up 123% from 2,805 tonnes in April, marking the first increase in three months. Compared with 1,558 tonnes in May 2025, exports surged to 221% year on year. Cumulative exports for January–May reached 15,957 tonnes, equivalent to 140% of the corresponding period last year, maintaining a robust growth trend.
By destination, China absorbed the entire export volume at 3,439 tonnes, accounting for 100% of total shipments. Exports to South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and India all fell to zero during the month. Consequently, May represented a complete return to an exclusive China-oriented export structure.
Overall, export volume rebounded sharply from April, driven entirely by renewed shipments to China. While exports remained at historically elevated levels, dependence on a single destination became more pronounced than ever. (Table1, Figure 1)
Share of Export Volume by Destination
The destination mix shifted dramatically from April to May. China's share rose from 82% to 100%, once again accounting for the entire export volume. Shipments to Thailand (13% in April) and India (5%) disappeared completely, while exports to South Korea and Taiwan also returned to zero.
Overall, the temporary diversification seen in April proved short-lived, with exports reverting entirely to a China-only structure. This highlights the increasing dependence of Japan's exports of HS7801.99 on Chinese demand, making future shipment volumes highly sensitive to procurement trends in China. (Figure 2)
Value Analysis
In value terms, exports totaled JPY1.074 billion in May 2026, up 115% from JPY937 million in April and 248% higher than May 2025 (JPY433 million). Cumulative exports for January–May reached JPY5.053 billion, representing 154% of the corresponding period last year.
Virtually the entire export value was attributable to China, which accounted for JPY1.073 billion, or almost 100% of total exports. Shipments to all other destinations were negligible.
Overall, the recovery in export value reflected the sharp rebound in shipments to China, reinforcing the dominant role of the Chinese market in Japan's exports of other crude lead. (Table 2)
FOB Trend
The average FOB export price eased from JPY334/kg in April to JPY312/kg in May, although it remained above the JPY300/kg level. The FOB price for China edged up from JPY311/kg to JPY312/kg, indicating continued firm pricing despite the decline in the overall average.
During the month, LME lead rose from USD1,922.65/tonne to USD1,991.03/tonne, while the international bullion price increased from USD1,824.33/tonne to USD1,889.38/tonne. However, the appreciation of the Japanese yen partly offset the positive impact of higher international prices on yen-denominated export prices.
Overall, despite stronger international lead prices, the firmer yen limited gains in FOB prices. Nevertheless, FOB remained above JPY300/kg, reflecting resilient pricing supported by tight domestic feedstock conditions and sustained Chinese demand. (Figure 3)
Major Customs Export Volumes and FOB Prices (JPY/kg)
(Figures in parentheses indicate the previous month.)
Major Export Destinations: Volume and FOB (JPY/kg)
(Figures in parentheses indicate the previous month.)
Outlook
Exports of HS7801.99 (Other Crude Lead) are expected to remain heavily dependent on China, which absorbed the entire export volume in May. Domestic competition for lead-bearing raw materials continues to intensify as lead battery scrap prices remain in the JPY120/kg range, providing ongoing support for exports of crude lead feedstock.
Although the recent appreciation of the yen may cap further gains in yen-denominated FOB prices, firm international lead prices and persistent tightness in domestic raw material supply should keep export prices around the JPY300/kg level. However, Japan's growing dependence on China means that any changes in Chinese import policies or procurement demand will remain the single most significant risk factor for future exports.
（IRuniverse/MIRU S. Aoyama）
