The global scrap aluminium trade posted a modest annual growth of about 3% in January–October 2025 as the demand for recycled aluminium remained stable in light of ongoing structural and policy changes in key markets. Nevertheless, industry professionals believe that year 2026 could be more volatile given tariff fluctuations, fresh regulations, and shifting trade flows.
Steady Growth amidst Market Adjustments
According to ALCircle data, global aluminium scrap exports reached nearly 9.95 million tonnes for the first ten months of 2025, compared with around 9.68 million tonnes during the same period last year. While still incremental rather than explosive growth, it does underscore the continued importance of scrap as a key raw material feedstock for aluminium production, particularly as sustainability and decarbonisation remain high priorities for manufacturers worldwide.
Meanwhile, at the same time, even with stable overall volumes, changes in demand dynamics and policy interventions are leading to noticeable shifts in the patterns of regional trade.
India is emerging as one of the key demand drivers.
India was a major player in supporting worldwide scrap demand during 2025. The country's aluminium scrap imports rose about 15% to 1.65 million tonnes in January–October, from a year earlier. This is also consistent with the growth of India's total secondary aluminium output capacity and fits into the wider resource efficiency and circular economy push.
However, India's sourcing patterns are changing. Imports of aluminum scrap from the United States decreased by approximately 3%, largely because of the tariff hike in the United States from 25% to 50%, effective mid-2025. The increased tariff burden has reduced the competitiveness of U.S. scrap for Indian buyers, fostering diversification toward alternative supply origins.
United States: Surging Exports, Soft Domestic Demand
The United States also reported a 6% estimated increase in aluminium scrap exports during the same period due to weaker domestic demand and its surplus availability, prompting exporters to seek overseas markets.
Simultaneously, U.S. secondary aluminium producers struggled with the wide spreads that made scrap purchases less attractive for domestic consumption. Hence, more of the scrap material was feeding into the export market rather than being absorbed locally.
Policy and Regulatory Pressures Shape Outlook
Looking ahead, the market participants expect higher uncertainty in 2026, as trade policies and regulatory frameworks keep on evolving. This may result from factors such as:
- Tariff changes and trade restrictions, especially those affecting major exporting and importing countries
- Tighter controls over the export of scrap, especially by the European Union, with the aim of keeping recyclable material within the domestic market
- Shifts in global supply chains, as manufacturers seek stable, cost-effective, and compliant sources of secondary raw materials
Such a process might address supply variations, price, and trade flow issues that could impact the broader milieu of buyers and sellers within the ecosystem for aluminum recycling.
Industry Implications
In contrast, while measured growth and relative stability have thus far characterized 2025, the underlying market signals suggest that stakeholders should be prepared for a more dynamic environment ahead. Import-dependent markets may need to strengthen their supplier diversification strategies, while exporters continue to have to be adaptable in light of changing regulatory and tariff landscapes.
The aluminium scrap trade will continue to play a critical role in supporting sustainable metal production; however, the road to 2026 will have to be navigated with increased adaptability, policy awareness, and strategic planning along the value chain.
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BASUNDE, Rohini（Global PR & Reporter ）
Based in India, Rohini works as a Reporter and Global PR professional,
leveraging her strong background in culture, society, and media studies.
Her work primarily involves article writing and managing global public relations campaigns.
Her core areas of interest are multiculturalism, intercultural understanding, and cross-cultural communication,
through which she disseminates information from a truly international perspective.
Hobbies: Drawing, photography, editing, traveling, and cooking.
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