In July 2024, during the MRAI conference held in Bangkok, the Argus Media Group released its latest outlook on the steel and raw materials market. The report focuses on the current state of global steel production, export and import trends, and the potential impact of policy changes on the market.

 

Global Steel Production: China and India Leading the Market

In the global steel market, China remains a production giant. In 2023, China’s steel production exceeded 1 billion tons, accounting for the majority of global output. India follows closely, showing its increasing importance in the global steel market. Countries such as Japan, the United States, Russia, and South Korea, while producing less than the leading two, also hold significant positions in the global market.

 

China’s Export Surge, India’s Import Dependence: Diverging Market Strategies

Over the past year, China has increased its steel exports, especially as competitive pricing has significantly boosted its penetration into international markets. In contrast, India’s steel imports have continued to rise, particularly in scrap and finished steel, reflecting strong domestic demand and structural gaps in production and supply chains.

 

Tight Scrap Supply: Response Strategies of Asian Countries

Global scrap supply is tightening, with major suppliers like the United States and Japan reducing their scrap exports. This trend has significantly impacted markets in Asian countries, particularly Vietnam, Taiwan, and South Korea. These countries are responding to supply challenges by enhancing imports from other regions and optimizing the use of domestic scrap resources, demonstrating their heavy reliance on scrap resources and market adaptability.

 

Impact of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on Asia’s Steel Industry

The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) implemented by Europe presents new challenges for steel exports from Asia. This mechanism aims to impose additional costs on high-carbon imported products to encourage global carbon reduction. For Asian countries reliant on steel exports, such as India and China, the impact of CBAM is particularly significant, potentially accelerating their shift toward low-carbon transformation.

 

Global Market Price Volatility: Widening Gap Between Turkey and Asian Markets

In recent years, the price gap for scrap between Turkey and Asian markets has gradually widened. This may increase competitive pressure on Asian markets in scrap procurement. The price gap not only affects the stability of supply chains but also adds uncertainty to raw material procurement among nations.

 

Future Outlook: Trade Policy and Market Transformation

As global trade policy uncertainty increases, scrap is becoming a strategic resource. The future direction of U.S. policy, particularly under the influence of election outcomes, could have far-reaching effects on the global steel market. Countries may adopt more protectionist measures to secure their advantages in the global resource competition.

 

Amid global market transformation and policy adjustments, the steel industry faces numerous challenges and opportunities. The performance of China and India in the market and their response strategies will determine the direction of the global steel market in the coming years. Companies need to flexibly adjust their strategies in this complex environment to seize market opportunities and maintain competitiveness.

 

（Related article）

https://www.iru-miru.com/en/article_detail.php?id=68805

https://www.iru-miru.com/article_detail.php?id=67756

 

 

（IRUNIVERSE　YT＆Zhang）

 

 

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