Japan's electricity demand is projected to surge in the coming decades. In 2022, domestic power demand stood at 902.8 billion kWh. Based on data from multiple institutions, including the Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, the Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE), and the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, Power X estimates that the construction boom of AI facilities, data centers, and semiconductor plants could push electricity demand to as high as 1.1 trillion kWh by 2040 and 1.3 trillion kWh by 2050—representing increases of approximately 21% and 44%, respectively, compared to 2022.

Meanwhile, Japan’s energy self-sufficiency rate was only 12.6% in 2022, the lowest among OECD countries (37th place), with almost all fossil fuel for thermal power generation imported. Roughly 90% of crude oil is sourced from the Middle East, while about 70% of coal and LNG come from Australia and Southeast Asia—both heavily dependent on secure maritime transport routes. Rising tensions in the South China Sea or waters surrounding Taiwan could pose severe risks to energy supply.

In response, the government’s 7th Strategic Energy Plan aims to source 40–50% of total power generation from renewable energy by fiscal 2040. Solar and wind are expected to take the lead in renewable supply, making the deployment of storage batteries essential for balancing supply and demand.

The shift to renewable energy as a main power source is expected to spur explosive growth in the battery market. According to Power X estimates, Japan’s Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) market will reach around 300 GWh in the next 15 years, with a storage capacity requirement of up to 337 GWh by 2040—exceeding the combined output of all domestic nuclear power plants. Overseas, California already sees batteries supplying about 30% of the state’s total electricity demand around 7 p.m. after sunset, and similar applications are anticipated in Japan.

LFP (lithium iron phosphate) batteries are drawing attention as the leading technology for energy storage. They offer high safety and long cycle life but have challenges in accurately estimating SOC (state of charge), requiring advanced remote monitoring systems. Following the May 2022 revision of the Electricity Business Act, grid-connected batteries with capacities exceeding 10 MW are now classified as “power plants.” In Yakumo, Hokkaido, a large-scale battery exceeding 50 MW has begun operations, and mega-class installations are expected to expand nationwide.

Batteries not only play a central role in stable energy supply but are also gaining strategic importance from a national security perspective. Moving forward, Japan’s power infrastructure strategy will hinge on the parallel expansion of renewable energy deployment, the spread of LFP batteries, and the strengthening of BESS control system security.

(Source: Power X)

(IRuniverse Lin)

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