The Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) held its Autumn Convention in Bangkok, Thailand, from October 27 to 28, 2025.
During the Non-Ferrous Division on October 27, Division President Paul Coyte of Hayes Metals (New Zealand), who served as chairman, opened the discussion by highlighting the growing complexity of global non-ferrous metal trade flows.
“The movement of non-ferrous metals is much like the trade winds,” he remarked. “Without accurate information, it’s impossible to predict their direction. Likewise, without reliable data, we cannot anticipate future market trends.”
Mr. Coyte underscored the importance of data accuracy and information sharing as critical foundations for understanding and navigating today’s rapidly evolving global markets.
The first speaker in the Non-Ferrous Division was Jessica Fung, Head of Consulting at Project Blue (U.K.), a firm specializing in the analysis of global critical-minerals supply chains. She presented data demonstrating how policy changes and tariff measures can exert immediate and tangible impacts on market flows and prices.
“Following the announcement of new U.S. tariff measures, imports of refined copper surged ahead of their implementation in August. The market reacted instantly as traders sought to move as much copper into the country as possible before the tariffs took effect,” Ms. Fung explained.
Although headline figures suggest that global trade in recycled copper has remained relatively flat over the past decade, Project Blue’s reanalysis—adjusted for transaction values, shipment timing, and reporting standards on a copper-equivalent basis—indicates steady underlying growth. The copper content per ton of traded material has also increased. Recycled copper now accounts for roughly 36 % of global copper consumption and is projected to exceed 40% within the next decade.
Ms. Fung added that the expansion of secondary smelting capacity is particularly notable in Asia, where the scrap-input ratio in Japan and South Korea has risen from below 10% in the early 2000s to around 25% today.
The next presentation was delivered by Inge Hofkens, Chief Operating Officer of the Multimetal Recycling Division at Aurubis (Germany). She remarked, “Over the past 30 years, we have never witnessed such dramatic shifts in non-ferrous metal flows—politically, economically, and technologically.” She highlighted the risks that national policies pose to the advancement of a circular economy.
She warned that if some regions open their markets while others close their borders yet continue to purchase large volumes of metals from abroad, both international trade and the circular economy itself could be undermined. She emphasized that primary producers and recyclers should not be viewed as opposing forces: “Responsible primary production and strategic recycling are twin pillars that enhance the industry’s resilience,” she said.
Citing Aurubis’s multi metal plant currently under construction in the United States, Ms. Hofkens added that the company aims to support local scrap-recycling communities and establish a new model of circularity that transforms complex scrap materials into high-purity metals.
The final speaker of the session was Stuart Kagan, Chief Executive Officer of Buddy (New Zealand), who discussed the potential of digitalization and technology in non-ferrous trading. The company’s digital platform aims to enhance transparency in metal trading processes and build greater trust between buyers and sellers.
He noted, “While technology has rapidly permeated other industries, the non-ferrous trading sector remains one where human relationship are still the lifeblood of business. However, human connection and technology are not opposing forces—they can coexist beautifully.” He emphasized that digitalization does not erode trust but rather has the potential to reinforce it in new ways.
Concluding his remarks, Mr. Kagan cited a 2024 McKinsey report, stating that metal traders who develop strong digital core capabilities will significantly outperform their competitors in both speed and efficiency.
When all three speakers joined a Q&A panel chaired by Sebastien Perron, President of CNA Metals (USA), together with guest panelist Albrecht Vanhoutte, Commercial Engineer at Galloo (France/Belgium), the discussion turned to secondary copper flows within the European Union.
Perron asked Jessica Fung to comment on her charts showing higher exports and lower imports over the past three years. Was it, he wondered, because more material had become available—or because the EU market had reached saturation?
Ms. Fung explained that several dynamics were driving the trend. One was the need to view the EU as divided between east and west: demand is growing in the east but declining in the west. She also noted that Europe will never have sufficient processing capacity for recovered metals, and with slower domestic growth, copper demand will remain much stronger in Asia and other regions.
Vanhoutte added that his company had observed more materials being shipped to China, possibly due to Chinese tariffs on U.S. exports.
From the floor, Emmanuel Katrakis, also of Galloo (France/Belgium), raised the issue of potential EU restrictions on the export of secondary copper and aluminium.
“The implementation of trade barriers can distort markets in terms of both material flows and pricing,” Ms. Fung commented. “From a broader perspective, such measures add costs, inefficiencies, and friction.”
Inge Hofkens observed that the current policy focus on security was a relatively new development but remarked that “markets will always find their own way.”
The discussions at the BIR World Recycling Convention’s Non-Ferrous Division vividly highlighted the realities confronting the global non-ferrous industry amid shifting policies and the restructuring of supply chains. While national measures such as tariffs and export restrictions continue to have an immediate impact on market flows and price formation, the growing adoption of data analytics and digital technologies is emerging as a critical source of competitive advantage.
Recent surges in aluminum and copper prices have also had a profound effect on industries worldwide, prompting traders to compete fiercely for access to scrap materials. The challenges now facing the non-ferrous metals market extend well beyond supply and demand—they center on how the sector adapts within an increasingly complex nexus of geopolitics, technology, and environmental policy.
Ultimately, the extent to which each region and market participant embraces data-driven decision-making will shape the resilience of the industry as a whole.
（IRuniverse Midori Fushimi）
