The global steel industry is on a path to transformation by the year 2026. The ferrous scrap market is undergoing a seismic shift due to several factors including; the decoupling of steel prices, an uneven recovery of demand for ferrous materials within different regions of the world, increased) government regulations pertaining to eco-friendliness, and significant acceleration of the impetus to decarbonize all aspects of the steel production process. A comprehensive view of these issues were provided during a high-level Panel Discussion at IMRC 2026, where key industry leaders, traders, manufacturers of finished steel products, market analysts and government policymakers engaged in discussions about how global scrap flows are currently changing and the topics of discussion regarding future directions of those flows.
Panel Composition: Examining the Complexity of the Ferrous Scrap Trade from Multiple Perspectives
The panel consisted of a diverse group of experts providing a broad perspective of the complexity of the trade of scrap metal in the world today. Mr. Jawed Ahmed, Chief Executive Officer of Al Qaryan Group represented the global scrap trading industry as it relates specifically to the Middle East Region. Mr. Keyur Shah, Managing Director of Mono Steel India provided insight into the rapidly changing sector of India's Secondary Steel Producers. Mr. Rohit Agrawal is a Project Head for the Steel Recycling Business at JSW Steel and Mr. Rohit Panchabhai is an Analyst covering the Indian Steel and Ferrous Markets for Standard & Poor's Global Ratings.
The session was moderated by Mr. Lee Allen, Senior Analyst at Fastmarkets, who guided the discussion with detailed global pricing data, steel production statistics, and market outlook analysis. Drawing on Fastmarkets’ coverage of over 6,000 price assessments worldwide, Mr. Allen contextualized regional scrap trends within broader shifts in global steel production, trade flows, and regulatory frameworks. The panel included representatives from across the spectrum of the Ferrous Scrap Market including, Mr. Sanjay Mehta, President of MRAI and Director of MTC Group, who focused on the need for policy and industry collaboration; Mr. Sanjoy Ghosh, Head - Supply Chain Management at BSRM Group, who focused on Bangladesh’s scrap-dependent steel market; Mr. V. R. Sharma, Vice-Chairman of Jindal Steel & Power Ltd., who presented the perspective of India’s large steel manufacturers; Mr. Yashraj Peety, Executive Director of SRJ Peety Steels Pty Ltd., who represented both the stainless and secondary steel industries; and Mr. Zain Nathani, Vice-President of MRAI, who provided insight from the regulatory and recycling industry perspective. Through the collaboration of these diverse individuals, a comprehensive understanding of a market faced with change was achieved and is at an intersection where traditional measures will soon become irrelevant, all manufacturers will incur carbon costs regardless of their location, and supply chains will have to adapt to the ever-changing global regulatory landscape as well as geopolitical issues.
Global Steel Production Trends: Diverging Growth Paths
Reviewing global crude steel production trends is an important way to evaluate how these trends will impact future scrap demand. During the meeting discussions, data presented during the session indicated that Global crude steel production was down close to 2% in 2023 to approximately 1.66 billion tonnes. However, the headline number does not tell the whole story. There are wide variations in the regional results.
The regions of Europe and East Asia have been declining, while the regions of India, Middle East, and certain parts of Africa have experienced increasing production. In a presentation by Mr. Rohit Panchabhai of S&P Global, he mentioned:
- India recorded the strongest growth among major producers, with crude steel output increasing by 10.3% between January and November 2023
- China’s production fell by approximately 4% over the same period, driven by overcapacity, weak domestic consumption, and subsequent production curbs
- Japan and South Korea continued to face declining utilization rates, limiting scrap intake
This divergence has had a direct impact on scrap trade flows. As Mr. Panchabhai noted, China’s surplus steel output in early 2023 led to increased billet exports, exerting downward pressure on finished steel prices in Asia and indirectly affecting scrap demand in importing regions .
Turkey’s Pricing Power and the Decoupling of Global Scrap Markets
One of the most dominant themes of the panel was the structural decoupling of Turkish scrap prices from South Asian benchmarks.
Turkey has long been recognized as the world's leading importer of ferrous scrap. However, starting at the end of 2025, Turkey's pricing has diverged significantly from its traditional pricing relationship with India, Bangladesh and Southeast Asia.
According to Zain Nathani, Vice-President of the Metal Recycling Association of India (MRAI), "The decoupling process is continuing into 2026". "Turkey's domestic demand is far ahead of most other international markets, thus placing extreme pricing pressure on the Indian and Bangladeshi Buyers."
Many of the panellists reported that Turkish mills were paying USD 20-40 per tonne more than South Asian buyers for similar grade material, particularly with respect to bulk exports originating on the US West Coast which, for the majority of Asian mills that are operating on tighter finished steel margins, simply cannot withstand the pricing premiums.
Mr. Jawed Ahmed, CEO of Al Qaryan Group, explained the structural reason behind Turkey’s pricing strength:
“Most Turkish and Middle Eastern mills are electric arc furnace-based. They have a yield advantage, which allows them to absorb higher scrap prices when demand becomes weak elsewhere.”
In addition, EAF dominance combined with strategic scrap procurement, access to European and US scrap routes, has positioned Turkey in a position to outbid traditional Asia competitors for scrap and redirect carloads of scrap globally.
US West Coast Scrap: A Strategic Battleground
Turkish demand for US West Coast scrap ships was a major concern for South Asian buyers. West Coast bulk shipments used to be a major source of supply for countries like India, Bangladesh, and Southeast Asia, but this has changed over the course of 2025 as Turkish demand has increased for these shipments due to pricing discrepancies.
According to SRJ Peety Steel's Yashraj Peety, “The last information we had was about $375 per ton delivered bulk HMS into Turkey, and that just doesn't work for Indian customers because they are only seeing $345 to $355 per ton delivered into India.”
The widening gulf between these markets has driven Indian buyers to rely much more heavily on containerised scrap, alternative source countries, and domestic materials, often with a loss of supply consistency and operational efficiency.
Despite discussions regarding additional domestic steel production capacity within the United States in the future, Panic and West coast panelists agreed that US scrap exports likely will continue for a long time.
Mr. Zain Nathani pointed out:
“There is roughly USD 20 billion worth of surplus recyclables generated in the US every year. Even with new domestic capacity, the US will continue to export scrap.”
This surplus ensures that competition for US-origin material will remain intense, especially once Asian demand rebounds.
India’s Scrap and Steel Growth: Domestic Expansion with Import Dependence
Throughout the course of the discussion, the emphasis on India’s position as the world’s largest driver of steel industry growth was repeatedly cited.
There is a rapid increase in both Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) and Induction Furnace (IF) capacity due to:
- Investment in infrastructure,
- Government Decarbonization Policies,
- Cost Competitive Steel making from Scrap.
According to Mr. V. R. Sharma, Vice Chairman of Jindal Steel & Power Ltd., many new EAF facilities are being developed. He explained that there are plans to add Fourth, Fifth and Sixth EAF facilities over the coming years.
The growth of these new EAF Facilities will have direct impact on the demand for scrap. Mr. Zain Nathani forecasted the following:
"In Absolute Terms; India will surpass its 2023 scrap consumption level. We may see a return of imports to the range of 10-12 Million Tonnes; however, as a Percentage of Total Consumption Domestic Scrap will Expand at a Greater Rate."
The data presented during the panel indicated that India's scrap imports decreased by about 4% in 2025, while its Total Scrap Consumption increased at Double-Digit Rates. This indicates that the Role of Domestically Generated Scrap is growing significantly.
Bangladesh: Election-Driven Demand Revival
Due to uncertainty in politics and delayed spending on infrastructure projects, Bangladesh's ferrous scrap markets have remained subdued over 2024 | 2025 as there is a large dependence on imported ferrous scrap to fulfill local needs.
Mr. Sanjoy Ghosh, Head of Supply Chain Management for BSRM Group stated, "The overall growth we saw was approximately 3.5%, which is lower than what we would have liked to have seen; however, once the elections are over and we see the restarting of projects, we are likely to see demand return very strongly."
Additionally, Bangladesh's imports increased by approximately 3.4% this year notwithstanding the difficult market conditions indicating that Bangladesh is likely to maintain some level of resilience. The resurgence of infrastructure projects after the elections will result in tighter supplies of iron and scrap metals throughout South Asia, creating more competition between Turkey and the Middle East.
The Diminished Role of Turkey as a Global Price Benchmark
A major change in the way people think about global scrap pricing is changing the way people think about Turkey as the universal price benchmark for ferrous scrap. Turkey's HMS prices were used as a base reference for most global scrap transactions throughout the last several decades; however, the consensus of the panel was that this is no longer a viable model.
Mr. Sanjoy Ghosh expressed the notion from the panel that, "To use Turkish prices as a pricing benchmark for South Asia is no longer a viable model. The markets in South Asia have their own fundamentals now".
This was also supported by the analysts on the panel who stressed on the importance of developing region based pricing indexes that are reflective of local markets; local demand, freight rate, furnace mix, and regulatory exposures.
Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM): From Theory to Cost
One of the most technically complex discussions centered on the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and its implications for scrap and steel trade.
CBAM will begin imposing carbon cost reporting requirements before transitioning to financial obligations, with estimated carbon prices ranging from USD 40–60 per tonne of CO₂, according to panelists.
Mr. Jawed Ahmed explained the gravity of the issue:
“CBAM is not optional. Once money is involved, people listen. If you want to sell steel into Europe, you will have to account for carbon—or pay for it.
In addition, a significant finding is that pre-consumer scrap can be included in the CBAM calculation, while post-consumer scrap has a lower carbon burden associated with it. This may change demand to shredded and obsolete scrap grades.
Many of India's producers of steel are already taking steps to implement green-steel methods. Mr. Zain Nathani adds:
“JSW and Jindal are already green-steel certified. Some are participating in green hydrogen projects with the Ministry of Steel. The mindset has changed.”
European Waste Shipment Regulation: A Looming Disruption
Perhaps the most disruptive regulatory risk discussed was the European Waste Shipment Regulation (WSR), set to take effect in 2027.
Under the regulation, scrap exports from the EU to non-OECD countries may face severe restrictions unless exemptions are granted. This could significantly impact India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, which collectively source around 20% of their ferrous scrap from the EU.
Mr. Jawed Ahmed warned:
“If exemptions are not granted, scrap flows from Europe to South Asia could be restricted for years.”
Mr. Zain Nathani confirmed that MRAI is actively engaging with governments, but acknowledged that no formal exemptions have yet been secured. Decisions are expected in the second half of 2026, leaving markets in a state of uncertainty.
Outlook for 2026: Cautious Optimism Amid Volatility
Despite regulatory risks and geopolitical uncertainty, the panel concluded on a note of measured optimism.
Key drivers supporting a positive outlook include:
- Infrastructure investment in India and South Asia
- Expansion of EAF capacity
- Growing acceptance of carbon pricing
- Continued surplus scrap availability from the US
However, risks remain:
- Geopolitical instability
- Trade restrictions
- Freight volatility
- Regulatory delays or abrupt implementation
As Mr. Zain Nathani summarized:
“Whoever can pay the price will get the scrap. That has not changed. What has changed is that the rules of the game are becoming more complex.”
Conclusion: Adapting to a Fragmented Scrap Economy
The IMRC 2026 panel made one thing abundantly clear: the global ferrous scrap market is no longer a single, unified system. Pricing decoupling, regional demand divergence, and regulatory fragmentation are redefining how scrap is traded, priced, and consumed.
Turkey’s dominance, India’s growth, Bangladesh’s recovery, and Europe’s regulatory tightening are not isolated trends; they are interconnected forces reshaping the market’s architecture.
For industry participants, success in 2026 and beyond will depend on:
- Diversified sourcing strategies
- Market-specific pricing intelligence
- Early compliance with carbon regulations
- Strong industry-government coordination
The era of simple benchmarks and linear trade flows is over. What replaces it is a more complex, but potentially more resilient, global scrap ecosystem.
(IRuniverse Rohini Basunde)
