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Bullion Export statistical analysis June 2019 2-month Declined

2019.08.07 15:05

<Overview>

Due to about 30% declined volumes for large-scale importer South Korea and Indonesia from the previous month, exports have decreased by about 6% for two months.
It continued to increase since the beginning of the year and reached its peak and started declining in April. It may have suffered from market stress in May and June.

 

 

<Detailed analysis>

The volumes in June were 1,270 tons as monthly basis, 93.6% month on month, 109.4% year on year, the total sale from Jan to June was 7,613 tons, and 211.6% year to year comparison.

 

The increase from the beginning of the year has been stood out in May and June, but the total volumes on January-June were significantly higher than the same period of the previous year, and there is no doubt that the market trend has greatly increased.
Due to the rapid growth exports, South Korea got slightly ahead of Indonesia regarding the total volumes from January to June.

 

Exports for South Korea reached 471 tons in the first time in May, and it was still stable even it decreased in June (Table 1, Graph 1).

In other countries, the large-scale export to India started from March, came to 100 tons in the first month and 141 tons in April, but decreased to 41 tons in May and finally to 17 tons in June. The growth doesn’t seem to continue.

 

The sales in June was 263 million yen as monthly basis, 91.3% month on month, 87.3% year on year, the total sale from January to June was 1,646 million yen, and 173.2% year to year comparison.

(Table 2, Graph 2).

The average sales on FOB fell to 207 yen from 212 yen last month, and it was along with the long-term downward trend of LME lead since 2018 (Graph 3).

 

 Looking at the customs by major country, exports for South Korea went to Osaka, Nagoya, and Yokohama last month, but it was narrowed down to one place in Osaka this month. On the other hand, for Thailand to Osaka last month but to Nagoya this month.

 

 

  Volumes by major customs/FOB results

   Figures in () are month on month

  Osaka                 599        tons       ¥212      (         596        tons       ¥219      )

  Nagoya               273        tons       ¥195      (         187        tons       ¥213      )

  Maizuru     292        tons       ¥194      (         390        tons       ¥197      )

 

 

 Volumes by major countries customs/FOB results

     Figures in () are month on month

 Korea   

  Osaka                 324       tons      ¥189     (284    tons ¥206)

  Nagoya      0            tons                     (105    tons ¥214)

  Yokohama          0            tons                       (82    tons ¥219 )

 Taiwan 

  Nagoya     61          tons       ¥193      (41     tons ¥209 )

  Yokohama          48          tons      ¥195      (48     tons ¥185 )

 Vietnam

  Osaka                 160       tons       ¥191      (159    tons  ¥208 )

 Thailand

  Osaka                 0         tons                     (133    tons  ¥267 )

  Nagoya    121       tons       ¥197      (   0    tons          )

 Indonesia

  Maizuru    292       tons       ¥194      (390    tons ¥197 )

 

 

<Future trend>                                                                   

As mentioned before, there is no doubt that the whole exports have increased, and the total amount is expected 1,200 to 1,300 tons in July.
The domestic waste battery market and the LME market have been slightly recovering since June, and I would like to pay attention to how much they will be affected the export prices.

 

 

表とグラフ

 

 

(IRUNIVERSE  S.Aoyama)

 

 

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