1. Executive Summary
Turkey’s steel trade expanded in 2025, with both exports and imports rising over the year. Imports, in particular, reached a record 18.9 million tons (+8.6% YoY), driven by a surge of low-priced products from Asia and Russia. Exports also recovered strongly, climbing to 15.1 million tons (+12.5% YoY), marking a clear rebound from the previous year’s decline.
- Exports: 15.1 tons (+12.5%) / Value: USD 10.2 billion (+4.3%)
- Imports: 18.9 tons (+8.6%) / Value: USD 13.1 billion (-0.7%)
- Key feature: Import volumes rose sharply, but the total import value declined slightly. This contrast highlights weaker global price conditions and the growing inflow of low-priced material, making dumping pressure more visible in the Turkish market.
2. Import Breakdown: Why Imports Hit a Record High
The main reason behind the import increase was the rapid inflow of steel from Russia and China. Turkish rolling , facing high domestic costs, increasingly relied on cheaper semi-finished products (slabs and billets) and hot-rolled coil from these two .
(1) Major Import Origins
The rise in imports was led by the following two suppliers:
| Rank | Country | Import Volume (Approx.) | YoY Change | Notes |
| 1 | Russia | ~4.5 million tons | +37.9% | Semi-finished products redirected to Turkey as access to Europe became limited under sanctions. |
| 2 | China | ~4.2 million tons | +13.3% | Aggressive export offers supported by excess capacity and very low pricing. |
| 3 | Others | Asia/Europe | - | Korea, Japan, and EU countries followed, but growth was far smaller than in Russia and China. |
(2) and Raw Material Trends
- Sharp increase in semi-finished imports: Imports of Russian slabs and billets significantly. This boosted among rerolling mills in Turkey, which process imported semi-finished steel, rather than electric arc furnaces that rely on melting scrap domestically.
- Decline in scrap imports: As semi-finished imports increased, Turkey’s ferrous scrap imports fell by 6.6% YoY to about 18.77 million tons. Scrap inflows from the United States declined in particular, while sourcing shifted more toward the CIS .
3. Export Breakdown: A Return Toward the EU Market
The main reason exports posted double-digit growth wasthe recovering demand in Europe, Turkey’s largest and most traditional market. The weaker Turkish lira also provided some support to export competitiveness.
(1) Key Export Destinations
Exports to nearby EU markets increased notably:
| Region | Key Countries | Trend/Key Drivers |
| EU (largest market) | Italy, Romania, Spain | Exports of long products and flat steel for construction and infrastructure increased. Italy and Romania recorded especially strong year-on-year growth. |
| MENA (Middle East & North Africa) | Yemen, North Africa | Demand remained supported by post-war reconstruction needs in Yemen and ongoing infrastructure activity. Exports to Israel declined sharply due to geopolitical factors. |
| Other Markets | South America, Ukraine | Some demand was linked to reconstruction-related material needs in Ukraine, alongside shipments to South American destinations. |
(2) Product Trends
- Long products, including construction steel, particularly rebar, remained steady.
- Flat products: Demand from Europe’s automotive and appliance sectors contributed to strong growth, with volumes up around 12%.
4. Outlook and Challenges for 2026
The Turkish Steel Producers Association (TCUD) expects crude steel production to exceed 40 million tons in 2026. However, several challenges remain:
- Widening trade imbalance: Imports continue to exceed exports, leaving the export-to-import coverage ratio at 77.6% in volume terms.
- Concerns over unfair trade: The sharp rise in Russian and Chinese imports is increasing domestic calls for anti-dumping measures and safeguard actions.
Scrap versus semi-finished competition: If energy costs remain high, the trend of importing cheaper Russian semi-finished products instead of melting scrap is likely to continue into 2026.
Translated from Japanese, by Mehmet Gönültaş
