Related Article
https://www.iru-miru.com/article/81261
(Overview)
Export volumes declined slightly from the previous month (second consecutive monthly decrease).
They also fell significantly y/y, with the market continuing to operate at low levels.
FX Trend (TTS, 3-month)
(Detailed Analysis)
■Volume
Exports in January 2026 totaled 626 tons,
down slightly to 98% m/m from 637 tons in December.
Compared with 1,641 tons in the same month last year,
this represents 38% y/y, indicating a sharp decline.
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■By Major Destination
●India
515 tons, maintaining its position as the core market.
Down to 82% m/m, but up 124% y/y.
→ Accounts for roughly 80% of total exports, firmly established as the dominant market.
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●Malaysia
9 tons, at a very low level.
Up to 113% m/m but only 4% y/y, indicating a sharp decline.
→ The market is effectively in a state of contraction.
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●Cambodia
Zero tons (unchanged from the previous month).
→ Occasional shipments may occur, but no continuity is observed.
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●Pakistan
Zero tons (unchanged).
→ Shipments remain effectively suspended.
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●Laos
No shipments continue to be recorded.
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●Others
102 tons, newly emerged from zero in the previous month.
10% y/y.
→ Represents one-off, supplementary shipments.
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■Summary
Although volumes were broadly flat m/m,
→ the export structure remains heavily concentrated toward India.
Traditional markets such as Malaysia continue to weaken,
while other regions show only intermittent shipments.
This further reinforces a
→ “India-dependent, low-level stable” structure.
(Table 1, Figure 1)
■Share of Volume (December → January)
• India: 99% → 82% (declined but remains dominant)
• Malaysia: 1% → 1% (low and unchanged)
• Cambodia: 0% → 0%
• Pakistan: 0% → 0%
• Laos: 0% → 0%
• Others: 0% → 16% (new emergence)
■Additional Notes
India remained dominant, although its share eased from near-total concentration (99%) in December.
At the same time,
• “Others” emerged at 16%,
→ indicating a temporary diversification away from single-market dependence.
However, Malaysia remains at low levels,
and Cambodia, Pakistan, and others show no shipments,
→ meaning the underlying structure still remains
“India-centered, with peripheral markets only intermittent.”
(Figure 2)
_
■Value
Total export value in January 2026 was JPY 179 million,
down to 93% m/m from JPY 194 million.
Compared with the same month last year,
it stood at 39% y/y, meaning only 39% of the year-ago level,
representing a sharp decline.
■Breakdown
• India: JPY 150 million (78% m/m, 129% y/y)
→ India itself exceeded the year-ago level and accounted for ~84% of total value.
• Malaysia: JPY 2 million (94% m/m, 4% y/y)
→ Near disappearance of the market.
• Others: JPY 28 million (9% y/y)
→ Significant decline y/y, though sporadic shipments remain.
• Cambodia / Pakistan / Laos: no shipments
■Summary
Value declined slightly m/m and fell sharply to 39% of the year-ago level,
→ indicating a weak start to the year.
While India-bound exports increased,
declines in Malaysia and other destinations dragged down the total.
→ This results in a structure where
India dependence strengthens further in value terms, while overall levels remain well below last year.
(Table 2, Figure 3)
■FOB Prices
The overall average FOB price declined from JPY 304/kg to JPY 287/kg.
■By Destination
• India: 305 → 291 (decline)
• Malaysia: 257 → 216 (sharp decline)
■External Environment
While the yen remains on a weakening trend,
yen-denominated prices have entered a correction phase.
Meanwhile:
• LME Lead: USD 1,942.31 → USD 1,998.26 (rebound)
■Summary
Following the sharp rise in the previous month,
→ FOB prices entered a correction phase across all destinations.
However, LME prices rebounded,
resulting in a divergence where
→ yen-based FOB declined despite rising international prices.
This is likely due to:
• Correction from the previous month’s surge
• Adjustments in contract terms
• Changes in destination mix
→ suggesting the market has entered a
short-term price correction phase.
(Figure 4)
LME Lead Price Trend (USD/t, 3 months)
Crude Lead (Bullion) International Price Trend (USD/t, 3 months)
Export Volumes and FOB by Major Customs (JPY/kg) (figures in parentheses indicate previous month)
Export Volumes and FOB by Country (JPY/kg) (figures in parentheses indicate previous month)
■Outlook
• India dependence to continue
The structure, led by India in both volume and value, is unlikely to change in the near term.
• Volumes: low but fluctuating
Monthly volatility persists, but overall levels remain limited due to the absence of alternative destinations.
• Prices: consolidation after correction
Following the prior surge, prices are expected to stabilize around the JPY 280/kg range.
• External support factors
Yen weakness and LME recovery provide downside support, but demand-side dynamics in India remain key.
• Key risk: demand concentration
→ Any slowdown or halt in Indian procurement would lead to a sharp contraction of the entire market.
→ Overall,
“India-dependent, low-level and volatile market with prices consolidating within a range”
remains the base scenario for the near term.
(IRUNIVERSE S. Aoyama)
