Memorandum of “9th Battery Summit in TOKYO” sponsored by IRUNIVERSE

Part One

Moderator: Kenichi Togawa (Kumamoto University)

 

On February 27th, the 9th Battery Summit in TOKYO was held at the familiar and usual venue of Gakushikaikan, with a pleasant sunny day but a strong wind. I would like to keep on record a memorandum below, based purely on my personal account.

 

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The first keynote speech was by Prof. Akira Yoshino.

 

Every year, the Battery Summit is held to coincide with Prof. Akira Yoshino's birthday, but this year, due to various circumstances, time elapsed since his actual birthday, but Prof. Yoshino's energetic lecture was given. I was happy to hear it.

 

The contents of the lecture

 

1. About Battery Passport

2. Critical mass: Future of the EV market from the perspective of the law of critical mass

3. World in 2050: Year of realizing CN

 

He gave an easy-to-understand explanation of recent policy trends and their impact on industry and daily life, dividing them into three parts.

 

The concept of carbon footprint will first be introduced to batteries, but eventually all products will have a passport. However, the method for calculating carbon footprint remains uncertain. In that sense, LIB's passport as a demonstration test would be of great significance.

 

Additionally, such a system would have a major impact on the location of factories. By introducing this system, it is possible to find out how many products are in which countries, which countries have the industrial infrastructure to manufacture them, and which areas are clean.

 

The key point is how we are going to view the slowdown in the Chinese economy. The global penetration rate of EVs (including plug-ins) will be 8% of the number of new cars produced in 2021 and 12% in 2022.

 

The borderline of critical mass is said to be 16% of the total, and it is not yet known whether it will be reached in 2023. If any product is not delivered within one step of its perfection, it is bound to disappear. It is said that once the number exceeds 16%, it will rapidly grow and spread. We heard a very interesting ``rule of thumb'' story about how we are now at a point of change.

 

A series of movements so far means that we should think about what we should do now into the future. Mr. Yoshino has released a video clip in which he himself appears, promoting the spread of autonomous driving (reducing accidents through automatic detection), a world where people can shop while riding, a world where there is no stress or accidents due to traffic jams, and emphasized the significance of lean mobility management, reducing waste in logistics.

 

He also claims that renewable energy can be used to play an active role, and that storage batteries can be used to supply electricity during natural disasters. In other words, the world that Prof. Yoshino dreamed of in 2016 is one in which surplus solar power generated during the day can be stored and used to contribute to the spread of renewable energy.

 

After his lecture, a commemorative photo was taken of all the this day's speakers surrounding Prof. Yoshino.

 

 

 

The first part of the morning session was ably moderated by Mr. Takaya Saito of SoftBank Group's Advanced Technology Research Institute, and we were able to listen to the following presentations.

 

 

1st report: Mr. Hideo Takeshita, Representative Director of B3 Co., Ltd. on “Latest LIB market trends”

 

Mr. Saito, the general moderator, was also surprised to learn that B3 Co., Ltd. is a company run by only two staff members, and is well known to those in the know who research the latest LIB market trends.

Mr. Takeshita, who gave a presentation, joined Nomura Research Institute after graduating from university, and has been engaged in LIB industry research and consulting ever since. He also talked about how he went to talk to Mr. Yoshino when he was younger.

 

Regarding LIBs, the main issues were price, performance and safety, and the 1990s was a time when people were considering what kind of LIB would be ideal for installing in personal computers and smartphones.

 

However, in 2000, a full-fledged installation of it in automobiles began. The standard unit for expressing battery performance is GW/h.

 

In the current market, mobile growth has been sluggish for two years in a row. (Computers, smartphones, and motorcycles are stagnant) On the other hand, there is a trend of growth centered on automotive products.

 

The other is the demand for storage batteries, and there is a large demand for LIBs for solar power generation, mainly in the United States and China.

 

Slow growth this year and next is due to subsidy reduction in Germany (PHEV) and France’s exclusion of China. Furthermore, if President Trump becomes a reality in the USA, it cannot be denied that the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 may be repealed.

 

In China, the number of PHEVs is increasing rapidly. And considering the future of carbon neutrality, this is definitely a market that will grow.

 

There may be demand for battery reuse now, but what about the future? It is necessary to find out.

 

He also argued that subsidies should be provided for battery recycling.

 

There is no doubt that Panasonic's battery technology is top class in the world, but the market size is small. It has not reached 1 trillion yen. On the other hand, CATL is at the 8 trillion level, while LG and Samsung are at the 2 trillion level.

 

2nd report: Mr. Jay-Yang, EcoPro (Korea)

 “Save the Planet – We Build Battery Circulation Economy”: Save the Planet – Build a Battery Circulation Economy

 

Mr. Yang, who has worked consistently in marketing from Samsung SDI to LG, has devoted most of his career to battery product development. Now, he has expanded his expertise to the recycling business, and the contents of his article are as follows:

 

1. Company introduction

2. Market outlook

3. Recycling of positive electrode

4. The future of recycling business

 

First, introduction of EcoPro at https://www.ecoprobm.co.kr/eng/sub010101

 

The company has two divisions, energy division and environment division, but it basically handles LIBs and related materials.

 

The company was launched in 1998 as an environmental business. After that, they also entered into batteries. He seems to specialize in high nickel NCM.

 

In 2022, CAM had a market share of just under 6.6%, which is said to be the world's top market share.

 

(Data for 2023 will be available in March.)

 

In 2024, the company plans to further globalize and expand into North America and Europe.

 

There is an opinion that the future will be high nickel and LFP, or middle nickel and LFP, but personally I think it is the era of high nickel and LFP. It depends on the price of the EV.

 

Regarding the circular economy, there is a strong tendency in Europe and North America to conduct recycling businesses on their own continents, so we are considering businesses that meet this demand. In particular, it is a business that manufactures and recycles LIB positive electrodes at home.

 

As a recycling step, pretreatment is carried out using a dry method to separate aluminum, copper, and black mass. It seems that there are cases where black mass is returned to raw materials for NCM. Basically, black mass is produced using lithium sulfate and pCAM as the main targets through wet processing. However, LIB recycling is not something that can be done by just one company. Cooperation of multiple companies is required, and the issue of how to recruit them remains. 　

 

This project is scheduled to be implemented in Pohang, South Korea. The company plans to use this as a model to expand to North America and Europe.

 

Q&A session

 

Q: How do you recycle LFP?

A: Development is planned in the second stage. However, at the current price of lithium hydroxide of $13, it is not profitable. That is the big challenge. If the price of lithium drops to $20 or $30, recycling can be expected to be profitable.

I don't think there is any other way but to increase efficiency and purity.

 

3rd report: Mr. Hiroyuki Akashi, AESC Group Co., Ltd.

“The latest technology and future prospects for automotive lithium-ion secondary batteries that support a sustainable society”

 

In conversation with the audience, I was struck by Mr. Akashi's remark regarding the AESC Group, ``We are a Japanese manufacturer.''

 

It is true that, in addition to Chinese companies such as CATL and BYD, Korean companies are also strong in the automotive LIB market, but AESC is by no means losing out. The present can be said to be an era of group heroism. The company was also the first company in the world to launch an on-board LIB, and has so far supplied LIB to 1 million EVs in 59 countries. The company is proud of the fact that there have been no fire accidents among the EVs it has supplied to the market.

 

Also, in the countries that have agreed to the United Nation’s net zero carbon, there no doubt exists a boom in car batteries. According to an IEA report, the spread of EVs is said to be slowing down due to Germany's subsidy cuts.

 

However, although the flow of electrification has slowed and the destination has shifted, the goal of CN is universally recognized.

 

Furthermore, considering the driving cost per kilometer, it seems likely that the era of BEVs will continue. This is because renewable energy costs are low. However, the mileage is still short. Therefore, a LIB with higher energy density is required. It is true that NCM is expensive, and LFP is becoming increasingly important. The market is demanding fast chargers with shorter charging times.

 

Against this background, the company is basically aiming to increase the energy density of NCM to increase the driving distance, enhance quick charging, and develop LFP in parallel.

 

Furthermore, in the world of automotive LIBs, not only cells but also modules are important. How to install them in an EV is a key point. For this reason, modules are becoming larger and larger to increase mounting efficiency.

 

Regarding future technology, all-solid-state batteries will be the key. In any case, material development is important.

 

Regarding recycling, it seems that direct recycling can only be applied to factory scrap. This is because there is a lot of contamination from market scrap. The mainstream method of recycling vehicle LIBs seems to be a wet method or a hybrid method of dry and wet methods.

 

Q&A session

 

Q: Is it possible to recycle the carbon in the negative electrode?

A: It seems that there are rules regarding recycling of negative electrode carbon in China.

Q: How can LFP be recycled?

A: NCM is high value, and mass production is shifting to LFP. What is evaluated when recycling LFP is the key point. Either way, it's difficult.

 

Afternoon lecture

 

The afternoon session started with the familiar Professor Yukiaki Harada as the MC.

 

 

4th report: Professor Masayoshi Yamamoto, Nagoya University on “Technological trends in systems that combine next-generation large-capacity automotive batteries and compound (SiC/GaN) power semiconductor applications”

 

Prof. Yamamoto's specialty is power semiconductors, and this time he used the inverse manufacturing method to explain the state of the LIB installed in EVs and how to incorporate it, showing many photo images. I was disappointed, as it seemed that the study is mainly focused on BYD cars.

 

The design, focusing on the sparse structure of an underbody to place battery packs all over its floor, is innovative. In other words, strength and stiffness are required.

 

His BYD SEAL has almost the same power mechanism as Tesla's Model 3, but it is distinctive in that it is mounted on the rear side, while the Dolphin is mounted on the front side. Also, should we use water to cool the battery? There are various designs depending on whether it is done with refrigerant or oil.

 

Prof. Yamamoto gave a particularly detailed explanation of in-wheel motors. Using Mercedes' E-class as an example, he explained about in-wheel motors, where the motor, inverter, and gears are in the same part. Regarding the relationship between the in-wheel motor and battery, the entire floor of the car can be made into LIB, and the development of such a device is for the expansion of living space. In any case, the type of battery will change, depending on which class of car it is applied to.

 

Q&A session

 

Q: Is there any safety issue regarding the body structure design?

A: To be honest, I feel that Tesla will not be able to sell on battery costs unless it makes its body design less stringent. Tesla is a challenger and has grown through its business strategy of lowering costs. I have an impression that BYD is doing well in this area, learning from Tesla and trying to upgrade.

 

5th Report: Mr. Song Hu, China Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd., on "China's NEV battery recycling management mode and industry development": China's NEV battery recycling management mode and industrial development

 

Automotive China appears to be a company that manages new energy vehicles. Furthermore, although Japan's next-generation vehicles often include HVs, China's new energy vehicles are basically EVs. Mr. Hu said that the rise of new energy vehicles has been noticeable since 2018, when the government and industry began to recognize the need to reuse waste batteries. And who is responsible for recycling? A theme emerged. The conclusion was that it was the automakers who supplied the EVs to the market. In other words, the interim policy was made public in February 2018, and the automotive battery norms were made public, and the responsibilities of the final brand manufacturer were made clear.

 

A so-called "white list" was published in October 2019, with more detailed requirements regarding the reuse and recycling of used batteries. When bidding for used batteries, it has become standard practice for companies registered on this whitelist to submit bids. However, there are many companies on the whitelist, and recyclers unrelated to the list are also working behind the scenes.

 

Therefore, an announcement requesting public comment was released on December 15, 2023. New rules are expected to be published in the second half of 2024.

 

The first important change here is the reference to the issue of ``dual subject liability.'' It also referred to comprehensive after-sales service, standards for reusing and recycling used batteries, and the responsibility of battery manufacturers for reusing and recycling batteries that were not installed in cars. Automobile companies are now responsible for lifecycle traceability.

 

Unfortunately, there was no time for Q&A, so those with questions were asked to do so via email.

 

6th Report: Ms. Evelyn CHEN, SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. on “The Global EV Battery Market: A Comprehensive Overview and Business Opportunities Under the Influence of IRA” Global EV Battery Market: A comprehensive overview and business opportunities due to the influence of IRA

 

Shanghai Metal Market (SMM) is a media company established in 1999. It is a company with a reputation for thorough analysis in both the new energy sector and the metals sector, and from what I hear it is also a media partner of IRUniverse.

 

In 2015, the world's largest energy summit was held in China, which triggered a boom in the LIB market, and the company has expanded into Singapore, London, and New York. The head office is located in Shanghai.

 

Now, in Europe, it has been announced that gasoline-powered cars will be phased out by 2035, and further technological developments are expected in the future in order to cope with this.

 

The current LFP uses Cell-To-Pack, and its mileage has increased to less than 600km.

 

NCM has outstanding reliability in terms of mileage, and in 2017 it held 50% of the automotive battery market share. On the other hand, LFP rose to 16% in 2017, due to its cost competitiveness. It is necessary to further improve energy density in the future, but BYD's LFP-equipped EVs are currently at the end of their maturity stage, and some believe that further technological innovation will be difficult.

 

Now, the US IRA requires all EVs sold in North America to be manufactured in North America, and if this can be achieved, the maximum deduction will rise to US$7,500.

 

However, looking at the supply and demand situation for LFP, there are no local resources in North America, and there is a risk that a huge amount of pollutants will be generated. On the other hand, production of cells in the United States is likely to increase as they are materials with low environmental impact and can be expected to receive subsidies. In particular, it seems likely that all of the Model D will be made in North America. In the case of Model C, SMM believes that it would be cost-effective to produce only pre-cursors in China.

 

In other words, there is a business model in which a portion of production is relocated from China in order to obtain subsidies based on the IRA. However, it will cost more, and it is important to consider whether or not there will be further subsidies.

 

7th Report: Ms. Mina Ha, RhoMotion (UK) on “Global Black Mass Outlook & Cross-Border Expansion”: The outlook for black mass in the world and its expansion beyond borders

 

This report was written by Ms. Ha, who works for British company RhoMotion, and focused on black mass. In addition to EV charging and battery recycling, the company publishes a quarterly focus report, which is said to have a good reputation for its analysis.

 

Black mass transactions in the global market are said to have increased by 30% in 2023. The main characteristic of this year was that 50-54% of the production process was in China, less than 10% in Asia other than China (South Korea and Japan), the US market was growing, and the Asian market was slowing down.

 

However, there is demand in Asian markets such as South Korea and India. The presence of Indonesia as a post-treatment cannot be overlooked.

 

In general, the reality is that battery recycling capacity is concentrated in China. However, since around last year, LFP recycling plants outside China (in the United States, South Korea, Indonesia, etc.) have begun to be planned.

 

Now, what I am concerned about is the regulations in Europe. Here, aluminum and artificial graphite are also included as resources to be recycled. On the other hand, natural graphite is considered a strategic material, and the European Commission is trying to create such a recycling value chain.

 

Currently, when it comes to battery recycling, there are large variations among companies, and variations in operating rates can be seen (Chinese companies' operating rates are generally below 20%: raw materials are not coming in). How much material do you have for recycling and how much processing capacity do you have? For now, the processing capacity has increased more than the supply of black mass.

 

Q&A session

 

Q: Is black mass treated as waste?

A: Such discussions are occurring in Europe. All I can say here is that this is a difficult question.

Q: Will China impose a ban on its export of black mass?

A: It is said that the impact of prices in 2024 is the cause, but my research does not cover prices. According to interviews with market participants, the price of black mass is falling, indicating a very difficult situation.

 

To be continued in Part 2

 

 

(Editedby Kenichi Togawa, Kumamoto University, IRUNIVERSE)

 

 

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