In an exclusive interview at the Stainless Steel Conference in Xiamen, November 6^th, Mr. Irwan from PT Timah Tbk, Indonesia’s largest tin producer, shared insights into tin market projections, upcoming production developments, and perspectives on competition in the Japanese and global markets. PT Timah, a state-owned enterprise, is optimistic about market stability and growth through mid-2025, despite various economic and geopolitical influences.

 

Tin Price Forecast

 

When asked about the tin price outlook, Timah's representative forecasted stable pricing until mid-2025. The relatively small fluctuation in monthly tin prices—currently around 1-2% as opposed to previous 4-5% gaps—signals a steady trajectory, attributed to seasonal buying trends and cautious production control among suppliers. However, they noted that factors such as U.S. election outcomes could impact tin demand if policies align closely with tech industries that heavily rely on tin for manufacturing.

 

"If U.S. policies turn favorable toward tech, we could see some price volatility, but overall, we expect stability," the Timah representative stated.

 

 

(LME tin price trends over the past one year)

 

Recycling Market and Production Outlook

 

As demand for recycled tin rises, Timah clarified its stance, citing regulatory limitations as a reason for not venturing into recycled tin production. The company operates primarily with tin ore sourced from its own mining sites, spanning approximately 500,000 hectares with substantial reserves. Additionally, Timah noted that, as a state-owned enterprise, any move toward recycling would require government approval. "The government policy focuses on premium production, and we continue to prioritize mining-based tin production," they explained.

 

 

 

Expansion in Africa and New Smelting Facility

 

In a move to expand its footprint, Timah plans to launch a new tin smelter in Nigeria, with construction set to begin in 2025. This new facility, with a targeted capacity of 10,000 tons annually, will support Timah’s goal of strengthening its presence in both African and Asian markets.

 

"If tin prices maintain their stability, our production volume will increase next year, not only in Indonesia but also from our new operations in Nigeria," Irwan shared.

 

Rising Competition in the Japanese Market

 

With Chinese producers, notably Yunnan Tin, entering the Japanese market, Timah acknowledges a growing competition but views it positively, considering the expanding market size. Irwan stated that Timah’s established reputation in Japan, built on product quality and reliability, would support continued demand from Japanese buyers.

 

"Our historical relationship with Japanese buyers and our consistent quality give us confidence," he remarked. "We welcome competition, as it could drive further innovation and create a healthy market landscape."

 

Timah anticipates that future competition from new private Indonesian tin producers could focus on markets like China, where entry is simpler than in Japan or Europe. “The Chinese companies entering Japan present a possible challenge, but we foresee a healthy competition,” Irwan concluded.

 

Looking Ahead

 

With a strong foothold in tin mining and plans to diversify geographically, Timah is positioned to meet evolving global demand in tin and compete within a rapidly changing market landscape.

 

 

(IRuniverse Lin)

 

 

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