At the MRAI International Conference, one of the largest events in India’s recycling industry, a panel discussion was held on the current status and future outlook of copper and zinc recycling. The session was moderated by Mr. Aurobinda Gayan of Bluglance Consulting, with industry leaders from Hindalco, Aurubis AG, Bhagyanagar India Limited, JG Chemicals, and others participating as speakers. The discussion focused on global supply constraints, sharp price fluctuations, and the explosive increase in demand associated with the shift to EVs (electric vehicles).
Speakers:
- Mr. Aurobinda Gayan (Bluglance Consulting Pvt Ltd)
- Ms. Divya Pandya (Hindalco E-Waste and Secondary Copper Recycling Project)
- Mr. Anirudh Jhunjhunwala (JG Chemicals Ltd)
- Mr. Hannu Heiskanen (Aurubis AG)
- Mr. Devendra Surana (Bhagyanagar India Limited)
The conference focused on the current state and future prospects of copper and zinc recycling, highlighting supply constraints, demand growth, and market dynamics. Experts pointed out that recycling plays an important role in meeting copper demand, particularly in India, stating that approximately 50% of copper consumption in India is supplied by recycling.
The discussion addressed global supply challenges such as manufacturing constraints and inventory movements, and there was agreement that copper shortages are expected by 2026–27 due to demand from the green sector and energy transition.
As an important point, the formulation of Indian standards for non-ferrous metal scrap classification to facilitate trade and improve recycling processes was highlighted. Presentations detailed new recycling technologies, including advanced electronic waste processing facilities in Gujarat (Hindalco), aimed at increasing recovery rates and reducing environmental impact.
The panel emphasized the importance of optimizing scrap collection, formalizing the sector through GST rationalization and reverse charge mechanisms, and promoting clean production to reduce carbon footprints. Market tightness was discussed, with the observation that while physical copper supply is sufficient due to high global inventories, speculative and retail-driven demand is causing price volatility.
Inventory drawdowns by the US market were cited as a factor temporarily tightening supply.
Demand for copper alloys such as brass in the EV sector is expected to grow strongly over the next five years, and expanding domestic production capacity will be necessary to meet this demand. Identified challenges include fragmented scrap supply chains, lack of unified standards, and the need for better regulatory frameworks. The conference called for strengthened collaboration among stakeholders to develop a closed-loop recycling ecosystem that supports India’s resource security and sustainability goals.
Summary of Key Points:
1. Copper Market Dynamics
Discussion on supply constraints, price surges, and the projected shortage through 2026–27. These are driven by geopolitical factors influencing green industry demand and inventory movements.
2. Development of Recycling Standards
Progress on BIS standards for non-ferrous scrap classification to streamline trade and improve recycling quality in line with international standards.
3. E-Waste Recycling Technology
Introduction of an advanced electronic waste processing facility in Gujarat with a capacity of 20,000 tons, using optical filtering technology to enhance metal recovery and reduce emissions.
4. Supply Chain Challenges
Fragmented scrap supply in India, the need for formal collection centers, regulatory support, and sector formalization through GST reforms and incentives.
5. Growth in Copper Alloy Demand
Strong projected growth in demand for brass and copper alloys driven by EV sector components and automotive applications requiring capacity expansion.
6. Market Tightness and Speculation
Discussion on physical tightness and speculative demand; high global inventories contrasted with retail-driven price volatility and US inventory drawdowns affecting market sentiment.
7. Environmental and Sustainability Initiatives
Focus on clean production methods, reduction of carbon footprints, and closed-loop recycling ecosystems to support India’s net-zero goals and resource security.
The Approaching 2026–27 Copper Shortage
At the opening of the conference, attention was focused on supply-demand dynamics in the copper market. Experts agreed that while current physical inventories remain at high levels globally, the transition to green energy and rapid growth in industrial demand will lead to a structural copper shortage between 2026 and 2027. A structural supply shortage of 250,000–300,000 tons is forecast between 2026 and 2027.
- Demand drivers: Rapidly increasing demand from green energy (renewable energy), EVs (electric vehicles), AI data centers, and the semiconductor sector.
- Supply barriers: Delays in mine development and declining ore grades preventing primary supply from keeping pace.
It was noted that inventory drawdowns in the US market and retail-driven speculative movements are amplifying price volatility. Speakers analyzed that physical supply is sufficient, but market sentiment and concerns over future shortages are pushing prices higher.
Mr. Hannu Heiskanen of Aurubis AG warned “by 2030, there could be a gap of approximately 10% (several million tons) between global copper production and consumption.”
Apparent Inventories and Speculative Frenzy
One particularly interesting point in the discussion was the divergence between physical inventories and prices. Currently, exchanges in the US and China hold high inventory levels, yet prices remain elevated.
- Retail-driven speculation: It was reported that an unprecedented phenomenon is occurring in which individual investors and retail markets are aggressively purchasing copper cathodes as investment assets.
- Uniqueness of the US market: Inventory accumulation in the US is distorting market sentiment, but panelists agreed that this is a temporary overhang and does not negate the long-term shortage trend.
Indian Market: 50% of Consumption Supplied by Recycling
In the domestic Indian market, the importance of recycling is extremely high. It was revealed during the discussion that approximately 50% of India’s copper consumption is supplied by recycled materials. However, the supply chain remains fragmented, highlighting the following issues:
- Fragmentation of scrap supply: Inefficient collection networks.
- Regulatory barriers: Lack of unified standards.
- Taxation: The need to rationalize GST (Goods and Services Tax) and introduce reverse charge mechanisms (RCM) to promote sector formalization.
In response, it was reported that the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) is progressing with the formulation of non-ferrous metal scrap classification standards (such as IS 2549). This is expected to align with international standards, facilitating trade and improving recycling quality.
Technological Innovation: Hindalco’s Advanced E-Waste Facility
There were also concrete presentations on advances in recycling technology. Ms. Divya Pandya of Hindalco detailed an advanced electronic waste (E-waste) processing project under construction in Gujarat.
- Processing capacity: 20,000 tons per year.
- Technology: Use of optical filtering technology and AI to maximize recovery rates of metals such as copper, gold, and silver.
- Environmental consideration: Adoption of clean processes that suppress the emission of harmful gases.
This project is attracting attention as a model case for closed-loop recycling to strengthen India’s resource security and reduce import dependence. In India, 2 million tons of electronic equipment scrap are generated annually.
Copper Alloy Demand Driven by the EV Shift
Mr. Devendra Surana of Bhagyanagar India Limited predicted strong growth in demand for brass and copper alloy components in the EV sector over the next five years. He emphasized the urgent need to expand domestic production capacity, particularly for charging infrastructure and battery connection components, and highlighted the company’s focus on product development including patented technologies.
Conclusion: The Path Toward Collaboration and Formalization
The panel discussion concluded that for India to achieve sustainable growth and net-zero goals, formalization of the recycling industry and investment in technology are indispensable. By integrating fragmented scrap supply networks and aligning government policy support with corporate technological innovation, it was concluded that India can secure a competitive advantage in the global resource competition.
(IRUNIVERSE Yuji Tanamachi & Rohini)
