At the MRAI international conference held in Jaipur, India, on January 21, 2026, a panel discussion on the Indian steel sector was conducted. Key points were organized regarding production trends in the Indian steel industry, price fluctuations, challenges faced by secondary producers, decarbonization and green steel measures, policy and incentive reforms, impacts on global markets, the circular economy and scrap management, as well as the roles of each panelist and stakeholder and future action plans. The moderator was Mr. Rohit Panchabhai of S&P Global Energy, and experts from each field clearly presented practical and policy-related discussion points.
1. Production Trends
India’s steel production expanded to 164 million tons (MT) in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%.
Primary producers (blast furnace manufacturers) grew by 9.4%, while secondary producers (electric furnace and induction furnace manufacturers) grew by 12%, with both showing growth. The average operating rate was 82.3%, reaching 84.4% in December.
Imports of steel products increased until 2024, then decreased in 2025 due to the impact of trade measures. Exports are also on a declining trend.
This section was mainly explained by Mr. Rohit Panchabhai using statistical data and graphs. Flexibility of production facilities and low capital expenditure costs were cited as growth factors.
2. Price Fluctuations
HRC (Hot Rolled Coil) prices peaked at ₹52,750/tonne in May 2025, then fell to ₹45,900/tonne in December, the lowest level in five years.
Prices rebounded due to government reforms and inventory replenishment at year-end, with projections of approximately ₹52,000/tonne in January 2026 and ₹53,300/tonne in 2027.
Analysis and forecasts of price fluctuations were handled by Mr. Rohit Panchabhai. Domestic demand, inventory adjustments, and policy measures were cited as the main factors.
3. Challenges Faced by Secondary Producers
Margin pressure is due to fluctuations in raw material costs and weak demand.
Improving cost efficiency and diversifying products toward steel segments with lower volatility are important strategies.
These challenges were mainly explained by panelists representing secondary producers, with explanations incorporating case examples from SRG.
4. Decarbonization and Green Steel Measures
Expansion of scrap usage ratios and promotion of the introduction of electric arc furnaces (EAF) and hydrogen-based DRI.
Emission reductions through the use of solar, wind, nuclear, and green hydrogen.
On this theme, Mr. Rohit Panchabhai covered industry trends, Mr. Sanjay Mehta (MRAI) covered scrap collection and incentives, and other panelists addressed green energy measures.
5. Policy and Incentive Reforms
Strengthening the implementation of recycling policies, rationalization of GST, and provision of incentives to the informal sector.
Introduction of green steel procurement obligations and organization of the entire supply chain.
Policy reform points were mainly discussed through collaboration between industry bodies (ISA, MRAI) and government stakeholders.
6. Global Markets and Geopolitical Impact
The Ukraine war and aging factories in Europe have reduced global steel supply, providing a tailwind for Indian exports.
Impacts on supply chains due to sanctions on Russia and increasing opportunities for the Middle East and India.
This section was handled by panelists well-versed in international market conditions, who pointed out structural changes in Europe and the potential for a sharp increase in future demand.
7. Circular Economy and Scrap Management
Organization of scrap procurement from the informal sector, investment in processing facilities, and establishment of long-term contracts.
Stabilization of scrap supply through mandatory vehicle recycling.
Mainly explained by Mr. Sanjay Mehta (MRAI), emphasizing the need to expand domestic scrap procurement and policy support.
8. Roles of Panelists and Stakeholders
| Name/Organization | Roles and main statements |
| Rohit Panchabhai (S&P Global Energy) | Moderator. Explanation of production and price forecasts, HRC market analysis, and decarbonization trends. |
| Sanjay Mehta(MRAI) | Promotion of scrap collection initiatives, organization of the informal sector, and proposals to strengthen policy implementation. |
| Mr. Sharma (Jindal Steel & Power) | India’s production expansion plans, introduction of EAF, and advancement of the green steel roadmap. |
| Clarence (JSMC) | Expansion of domestic scrap procurement platforms, and presentation of challenges related to human resources and supply chain integration. |
| JSW Steel Team | Formulation of response strategies for the recycled steel obligation (8%) for the automotive industry. |
| Industry Associations (ISA, MRAI) | Strengthening collaboration for policy implementation, rationalization of GST, and promotion of green steel procurement and the circular economy. |
9. Future Action Items
Clarence (JSMC): Expansion of domestic scrap procurement platforms and increase in volume (6 months)
ISA, MRAI: Strengthening implementation of recycling policies through collaboration with the government (ongoing)
JSW Steel team: Development of strategies to respond to the 8% recycled steel obligation in the automotive sector (Q2 2026)
Rohit Agrawal (JSW Steel): Improvement of scrap processing capacity through collaboration with stakeholders (this quarter)
Sanjay Mehta: Promotion of scrap collection initiatives and incentive programs (next quarter)
Session 1: Market Analysis and Price Trends
Moderator (Rohit Panchabhai):
Let us begin by reviewing the Indian steel market in 2025. Looking at the data, there were very interesting movements.
S&P Global Energy Analyst:
Yes. India’s crude steel production in 2025 reached 164 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%. Particularly noteworthy is that production by secondary producers (electric furnace and induction furnace manufacturers) increased by 12%. The share of induction furnaces expanded from 34% to 36%, capturing demand through low-cost and flexible production systems.
Meanwhile, HRC (Hot Rolled Coil) prices fluctuated significantly. After peaking in May (₹52,750/tonne), they fell sharply to a five-year low (₹45,900/tonne) in December. However, toward the end of the year, prices rebounded due to inventory replenishment and government trade measures.
Session 2: Decarbonization and Transition of Production Technologies
JINDAL Advancing Electric Furnace Adoption
Moderator:
Decarbonization is an unavoidable challenge. Mr. Sharma of Jindal Steel & Power (JSP), what kind of strategy is your company pursuing?
Mr. Sharma (JSP Vice Chairman):
We are clearly reducing our dependence on blast furnaces and advancing the transition to electric arc furnaces (EAF). We plan to have four EAF units by the end of 2026, and a total of six units from 2027 onward.
Another important element is the use of green hydrogen. By linking with the government’s Green Hydrogen Mission and introducing hydrogen-based DRI (Direct Reduced Iron) plants, we will mix scrap and DRI to significantly reduce CO₂ emissions.
Moderator:
Do you have specific emission reduction targets?
Mr. Sharma:
Yes. By utilizing hydrogen-based DRI and renewable energy, we aim to reduce CO₂ emissions to less than 700 kg per ton, and in the future to the 500 kg level. This figure includes Scopes 1, 2, and 3.
Session 3: Scrap Supply Challenges and the Informal Sector
Moderator:
For the transition to EAF, a stable supply of iron scrap is essential. Clarence from JSMC, what are the supply chain challenges?
Clarence (JSMC):
The biggest challenge lies in the structure of supply sources. Much of India’s scrap is supported by informal collectors positioned at the lowest levels of households and society.
We need an inclusive approach. This means integrating them into the formal supply chain, providing appropriate incentives and social status, and urgently investing in processing facilities such as shredders and balers to efficiently process collected waste. Plans for new processing facilities are underway in Khopoli and Chennai, but they are still insufficient.
Mr. Sanjay Mehta (MRAI):
To add, rationalization of GST (Goods and Services Tax) by the government and strengthening the effectiveness of recycling policies are also indispensable. If the informal sector is not integrated into the system, resources will flow into the black market and will not appear in domestic statistics.
Session 4: Automotive Industry and Recycling Obligations (EPR)
Moderator:
The introduction of EPR (Extended Producer Responsibility) in the automotive industry is also a topic of discussion. How is the JSW Steel team responding?
JSW Steel Representative:
Automobile manufacturers are initially required to meet an obligation of 8% recycled steel usage, which is planned to be raised to 18% in the future.
We are directly collaborating with automobile manufacturers (OEMs) to build a “closed-loop” system that collects scrap generated by them and returns it as steel.
Moderator:
What about the increase in costs (green premium) for green steel?
JSW Steel Representative:
According to estimates, the amount of steel required per automobile is approximately 0.5 tonness. Even if a premium of USD 40 per tonne is applied, the impact on vehicle prices would be about 2,200 rupees (approximately 4,000 yen). Considering the climate crisis, we believe this is a cost that should be accepted.
Session 5: Outlook for 2026 and Geopolitical Opportunities
Moderator: Finally, please tell us about the market outlook from 2026 onward.
Mr. Sharma (JSP Vice Chairman):
2026 will be a very good year for the Indian steel industry. We expect a growth rate of 10–11%, driven by infrastructure investment.
Furthermore, from a global perspective, a large “supply gap” will emerge.
Ukraine reconstruction demand: After the end of the war, annual steel demand of 70–80 million tons will arise for reconstruction.
Aging in Europe: Many European steel plants were built after World War II and are being closed due to aging. This will create a supply shortage of approximately 30 million tons.
Filling this gap will be new steel plants in India and the Middle East. We need to capture export opportunities arising from these global supply-demand changes, in addition to domestic growth.
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Q&A
Q1: Please explain responses to the recycled steel usage obligation (EPR) in the automotive industry and costs (green premium).
A: (JSW Steel Representative Mr. Rohit Agrawal)
Currently, as part of EPR (Extended Producer Responsibility), the automotive industry is required at the initial stage to make 8% of used steel recycled material, with plans to raise this to approximately 18% in the future.
We are directly collaborating with automobile manufacturers (OEMs) to collect scrap generated from their manufacturing processes and supply it again as steel through the construction of a closed-loop (circular) system.
Regarding costs (green premium):
There are concerns about rising green steel prices, but estimates show the impact is limited.
Steel usage per automobile is approximately 0.5 tonnes.
Even if a premium of USD 40 per tonne is added to green steel, the cost increase per vehicle would be approximately 3,500–4,400 rupees (approximately 2,200 yen or more).
Considering the critical situation of climate change, we believe this level of cost increase is within an acceptable range and that understanding will spread among automobile manufacturers and consumers.
Q2: How is the transition of production technologies (blast furnace vs electric furnace) toward decarbonization progressing?
A: (Jindal Steel & Power / Mr. Sharma)
We are reducing dependence on conventional blast furnaces and accelerating the introduction of electric arc furnaces (EAF).
Specific plans: We are proceeding at a pace of installing new EAFs every two years, planning to have four units by the end of 2026 and the fifth unit operational in 2027. We do not recommend increasing blast furnaces any further.
Benefits: Transitioning to EAF enables flexible use of HBI (Hot Briquetted Iron), DRI (Direct Reduced Iron), and iron scrap. Combining this with green energy is the most effective means toward decarbonization.
Q3: What are India’s chances regarding the utilization of green hydrogen and DRI (Direct Reduced Iron)?
A: (Jindal Steel & Power / Mr. Sharma)
India does not have abundant natural gas resources like the Middle East or Russia, so in the long term, green hydrogen will be key.
Government support: The Indian government has launched the Green Hydrogen Mission, aiming to introduce 400 GW of renewable energy by 2030 and 800 GW by 2034. If hydrogen production hubs are developed near steel plants, hydrogen-based DRI production will become possible.
Production process: Hydrogen-based DRI is produced and then melted in EAFs mixed with scrap. The assumed mixing ratio is 30–40% scrap and 60–70% green DRI.
Emission reduction effect: Through this process, CO₂ emissions are expected to be reduced to below 700 kg per ton, and in the future to the 500 kg level (Scope 1, 2, and 3 combined).
Q4: What are the global trends in green steel and their impact on India?
A: (Panel Discussion Summary)
Globally, the shift toward hydrogen-based DRI is clear. For example, in Sweden (H2 Green Steel, Hybrit, etc.), hydrogen reduction steel plants with an annual capacity of 2.5 million tons are being constructed.
Meanwhile, in Europe, many old steel plants built between 1955 and 1965 are reaching closure due to aging, and a supply gap of approximately 30 million tons is predicted. Combined with Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction demand (estimated 70–80 million tons), a global steel shortage is expected.
Filling this supply shortage will be manufacturers in India and the Middle East that are investing in the latest EAF and DRI technologies. For the Indian steel industry, we are confident that the years after 2026 will be major opportunity years for technological innovation and export expansion.
(IRUNIVERSE Yuji Tanamachi & Rohini)
