Turkey's scrap metal imports rose 15.4 percent year-on-year in January 2026, reaching 1.7 million metric tonnes according to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK). The total value of these imports came in at $835.43 million, up 14.7 percent year-on-year and 1.7 percent month-on-month. On the surface, the numbers look solid. Beneath them, however, the picture is considerably more cautious: deep-sea scrap prices continue to move sideways, finished steel demand remains extremely weak, and Turkish mill margins are under sustained pressure. The volume growth in January reflects largely contractual obligations rather than fresh buying appetite.
Buying Driven by Contracts, Not Demand
Recent scrap purchases in Turkey have been driven primarily by the need to fulfill existing contracts rather than by new orders. This distinction matters: it signals that mills are procuring to avoid supply disruptions rather than in response to improving end demand. Many producers are also keeping the option of short-term production stoppages on the table to better manage costs and gain time if conditions do not improve.
Turkish steel producers continue to operate with tight margins, particularly in the long products and rebar segments. Weak domestic construction demand and limited export orders are the twin constraints bearing down on profitability. Domestic scrap collection constraints and relatively stable international freight rates are supporting sellers' efforts to maintain their offer levels for now. But unless there is a clear improvement on the demand side, the fragile market environment is expected to persist.
US Surges to the Top, Eastern Europe Gains Ground
Within the January import figures, the most significant development was the United States emerging as Turkey's single largest scrap supplier. The US delivered 358,153 metric tonnes, up 143.3 percent year-on-year from 147,188 tonnes in January 2025, accounting for 21 percent of Turkey's total scrap intake. The surge reflects competitive US scrap pricing, strong availability of obsolete and industrial grades, and favorable transatlantic freight conditions during the period.
Eastern European suppliers also posted exceptional growth. Romania jumped 165.2 percent year-on-year to 148,806 tonnes, while Lithuania recorded the strongest relative growth in the top ten, up 221.1 percent to 125,295 tonnes. Russia grew 71.7 percent to 121,709 tonnes. These gains came largely at the expense of established Western European suppliers. The Netherlands, while remaining the second-largest source at 220,857 tonnes, fell 13.0 percent year-on-year. The UK dropped 24.2 percent to 155,898 tonnes and Denmark saw the steepest decline at 44.6 percent, falling to just 65,952 tonnes from 118,954 tonnes a year earlier.
Disruption and Transition in Europe and the Baltics
In Europe and the Baltic region, severe winter conditions disrupted physical scrap flows in January, contributing to lower export volumes from key traditional suppliers. Beyond the weather, growth expectations for 2026 in the European scrap market are failing to signal a meaningful recovery for the sector. Intensified discussions around carbon emission reductions are seen as a positive development from a medium- to long-term transformation perspective, but they provide little immediate commercial relief.
On the policy side, possible adjustments to scrap export regulations and the potential introduction of a chrome export tax remain on the industry's agenda in several producing countries. Several new trade measures targeting steel producers are also expected to be implemented over the course of the year, adding further uncertainty to supply chain planning across the region.
Outlook: Downside Risks Are Strengthening
The overall market outlook points to growing downside risks for scrap prices. Market participants indicate that a $20 per tonne correction toward the end of February or early March would not come as a surprise. In the short term, expectations for a strong price rebound remain very limited, with buyers inclined to wait rather than build inventory at current levels.
For Turkey's steel industry, the path forward in early 2026 is narrow. Volume growth in scrap imports does not translate automatically into improved steel output or margins when finished product demand remains depressed. The reorientation of supply toward the US and Eastern Europe introduces new sourcing dynamics, but does not resolve the fundamental issue: Turkish mills need stronger demand from construction and export markets before the market can meaningfully recover. Until that materialises, caution will remain the dominant posture across the supply chain.
Source: Turkish Statistical Institute https://www.tuik.gov.tr/
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GÖNÜLTAŞ, Mehmet（Reporter）
Freelance journalist based in Istanbul, Turkey. He writes on international relations and diplomacy, with a focus on Japan–Turkey relations, military affairs, and democratic governance. His hobbies are running, language study, and traveling.
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