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Overview
Export volume increased from the previous month. Exports totaled 1,075 tonnes in April 2026, up 58% month on month (m/m) from 680 tonnes in March, marking the first increase in two months. Compared with 981 tonnes in April 2025, exports rose to 110% year on year (y/y), exceeding the year-earlier level.
However, most of the increase was attributable to a sharp rise in shipments classified under "Others," while exports to India, the principal destination, declined to 259 tonnes, or 54% m/m. Overall, exports recovered to above the 1,000-tonne level despite significant changes in destination patterns, indicating a modest rebound from the recent low level.
A breakdown of the 816 tonnes shipped under "Others" shows that Thailand accounted for 645 tonnes, representing approximately 79% of the category, followed by the United States (157 tonnes) and China (14 tonnes). The increase in April exports was therefore driven primarily by the sharp expansion in shipments to Thailand, resulting in a temporary diversification away from the conventional India-centered export structure. In particular, exports to Thailand recorded an average unit value of JPY 213/kg, close to the overall average of JPY 220/kg, making a significant contribution to both export volume and value during the month.
TTS Exchange Rate Trend (Three Months)
Detailed Analysis
Export volume increased from the previous month. Exports totaled 1,075 tonnes in April 2026, up 58% m/m from 680 tonnes in March, marking the first increase in two months. Compared with 981 tonnes in April 2025, exports reached 110% y/y, exceeding the level recorded a year earlier.
However, the increase was largely driven by a sharp rise in shipments classified as "Others," while exports to India, the largest destination, fell to 259 tonnes, or 54% m/m. Overall, exports recovered to above the 1,000-tonne level despite changes in the destination mix, indicating a modest improvement from the recent low level.
Among the 816 tonnes exported under "Others," Thailand accounted for 645 tonnes, representing approximately 79%, followed by the United States with 157 tonnes and China with 14 tonnes. Accordingly, the increase in April exports was essentially attributable to the sharp rise in shipments to Thailand, temporarily shifting the export structure away from its traditional India-centered pattern. Notably, exports to Thailand were priced at JPY 213/kg, close to the overall average of JPY 220/kg, contributing significantly to both export volume and export value.(Table 1, Figure 1)
Share of Export Volume by Destination
The destination mix changed significantly from March to April.
• India: 71% → 24%, a sharp decline.
• Malaysia: 0% → 0% (no shipments).
• Cambodia, Pakistan and Laos: No shipments continued.
• Others: 29% → 76%, a substantial increase.
Summary
Exports to India fell to 259 tonnes in April, while shipments classified as "Others" surged to 816 tonnes, resulting in a significant change in the export structure. Most of the "Others" category consisted of shipments to Thailand (645 tonnes), indicating a temporary shift from the India-centered export pattern seen through March to one led by Thailand and other destinations.
However, the destination mix remains highly volatile, making it premature to regard this as the emergence of a stable new export market. Export activity therefore continues to be characterized by an unstable structure driven largely by spot transactions.
(Figure 2)
Value Analysis
On a value basis, exports totaled JPY 236 million in April 2026, up 38% m/m from JPY 172 million in March. However, this remained below the JPY 281 million recorded in April 2025, representing 84% y/y.
Exports to India, the principal destination, declined to JPY 74 million (52% m/m, 69% y/y). In contrast, exports classified as "Others" surged to JPY 162 million (548% m/m), providing the main support for total export value. The increase in April was therefore attributable primarily to expanded shipments to Thailand and other destinations within the "Others" category.
Cumulative exports for January–April totaled JPY 771 million, equivalent to 68% of the level recorded a year earlier. Although exports to India reached JPY 460 million (128% y/y), remaining above last year's level, continued weakness in shipments to Malaysia and other destinations kept cumulative export value below the previous year's level.
(Table 2, Figure 3)
FOB Trend
The average export FOB price fell sharply from JPY 253/kg in March to JPY 220/kg in April. Among the major destinations, the FOB price to India declined from JPY 294/kg to JPY 288/kg, weighing on the overall average. Meanwhile, although shipments to Thailand reached 645 tonnes in April, the FOB price was JPY 213/kg, below that of India, contributing to the decline in the average export price.
On the external front, the LME lead price rebounded from USD 1,880/tonne in March to USD 1,923/tonne in April. In addition, the Japanese yen remained on a weakening trend during April, which would normally have supported higher yen-denominated FOB prices. In reality, however, export FOB prices declined. This appears to reflect the fact that an increase in relatively low-priced shipments, particularly to Thailand, together with changes in the destination mix, more than offset the positive effects of the higher LME lead price and the weaker yen.
Overall, April can be characterized as a month in which export unit prices weakened due to changes in the destination mix, despite the recovery in international lead prices and the continued depreciation of the yen. While export volumes increased, pricing remained somewhat soft.
(Figure 4)
LME Lead Price Trend (USD/t, Six Months)
International Crude Lead (Bullion) Price Trend (USD/t, Three Months)
Export Volume and FOB Price by Major Customs Office (Figures in parentheses indicate the previous month.)
Export Volume and FOB Price by Major Destination (Figures in parentheses indicate the previous month.)
Outlook
India is expected to remain the principal export market. However, shipments classified as "Others" accounted for 76% of total export volume in April, highlighting growing volatility in export destinations. Although the LME lead price rebounded, the average FOB price declined to JPY 220/kg, suggesting that export prices are likely to fluctuate within the low-to-upper JPY 200/kg range. Going forward, export performance will depend not only on demand from India but also on the emergence of spot shipments to destinations such as Thailand and the United States.
Overall, the market appears to be evolving from an India-centered structure toward a more volatile export pattern led by shipments to "Others," while India continues to serve as the core destination.
(IRUNIVERSE / S. Aoyama)
