Export Destinations Remain Diversified Despite Easing Shipments to Thailand; Price Adjustment Becomes More Pronounced
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https://www.iru-miru.com/article/83954
TTS Exchange Rate Trend (Three Months)
Detailed Analysis
Overview
Export volume declined from the previous month. Exports totaled 769 tonnes in May 2026, down 28% month on month (m/m) from 1,075 tonnes in April, marking the first decline in two months. Nevertheless, compared with 674 tonnes in May 2025, exports increased to 114% year on year (y/y), remaining above the level recorded a year earlier.
Exports to India, the principal destination, edged down to 238 tonnes (92% m/m), while shipments classified as "Others" also declined to 430 tonnes (53% m/m), indicating that the sharp expansion seen in April had moderated. However, exports to Malaysia resumed at 101 tonnes, helping maintain a diversified destination structure. Overall, although total exports retreated to the 700-tonne range, they remained above the year-earlier level.
A breakdown of the 430 tonnes shipped under "Others" shows that Thailand accounted for 262 tonnes, representing approximately 61% of the category, followed by the United States (152 tonnes) and China (16 tonnes). Although shipments to Thailand decreased from April, it remained the largest destination within the "Others" category. The average FOB price for exports to Thailand was JPY 217/kg, slightly above the overall average of JPY 211/kg. Meanwhile, the resumption of exports to Malaysia suggests that the shift away from the traditional India-centered structure toward a more diversified export pattern continued.(Table 1, Figure 1)
Share of Export Volume by Destination
The destination mix changed again from April to May.
• India: 24% → 31%, recovering its share.
• Malaysia: 0% → 13%, as exports resumed.
• Cambodia, Pakistan and Laos: No shipments were recorded.
• Others: 76% → 56%, declining from the exceptionally high level seen in April.
Summary
Although exports classified as "Others" declined to 430 tonnes in May, India's share recovered to 31% as shipments reached 238 tonnes. Exports to Malaysia also resumed at 101 tonnes, further broadening the destination mix. While Thailand remained the largest destination within the "Others" category (262 tonnes), the heavy concentration seen in April eased, resulting in a more balanced distribution among India, Malaysia and Thailand.
Nevertheless, export destinations continue to fluctuate considerably from month to month, suggesting that the market remains highly dependent on spot transactions rather than long-term demand. Accordingly, export flows are expected to remain volatile.(Figure 2)
Value Analysis
On a value basis, exports totaled JPY 162 million in May 2026, down to 69% m/m from JPY 236 million in April. Compared with JPY 162 million in May 2025, however, export value remained essentially unchanged (100% y/y).
Exports to India, the principal destination, edged down slightly to JPY 70 million (95% m/m, 81% y/y), while shipments classified as "Others" declined to JPY 79 million (49% m/m), indicating that the sharp increase recorded in April had largely subsided. Meanwhile, exports to Malaysia resumed, reaching JPY 12 million, contributing to a broader distribution of export value across destinations.
Cumulative exports for January–May totaled JPY 934 million, equivalent to 72% of the level recorded a year earlier. Although exports to India reached JPY 531 million (119% y/y), remaining above last year's level, continued weakness in exports to Malaysia (48% y/y) and Others (49% y/y) kept cumulative export value below the previous year's level.(Table 2, Figure 3)
FOB Trend
The average FOB export price declined from JPY 220/kg in April to JPY 211/kg in May, extending its downward correction. By destination, the FOB price for India increased from JPY 288/kg to JPY 296/kg, reflecting firmer pricing despite lower shipment volumes. In contrast, Malaysia, where exports resumed, recorded a relatively low FOB price of JPY 122/kg, while Thailand, the largest destination within the "Others" category, stood at JPY 217/kg. The increase in lower-priced shipments to Malaysia, together with the continued presence of Thailand-bound cargoes, weighed on the overall average FOB price.
Externally, the LME lead price rose from USD 1,923/t in April to USD 1,991/t in May, while the international bullion price also strengthened from USD 1,824.33/t to USD 1,889.38/t. However, the appreciation of the Japanese yen during May offset much of the upward impact from higher international prices on yen-denominated export values.
Overall, although international lead prices continued to recover, Japan's average FOB export price fell to JPY 211/kg, indicating that changes in destination mix and exchange-rate movements outweighed the positive effect of higher LME and bullion prices. While prices to India remained firm, increased shipments to relatively lower-priced destinations kept the overall export unit value under pressure.(Figure 4)
LME Lead Price (USD/t): Six-Month Trend
International Lead Bullion Price (USD/t): Three-Month Trend
Export Volume and FOB by Major Customs Office
(Figures in parentheses indicate the previous month's data.)
Export Volume and FOB by Destination Country
(Figures in parentheses indicate the previous month's data.)
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Outlook
India is expected to remain the principal export destination, although its share has eased as shipments have become more diversified across Thailand, Malaysia, the United States and other spot markets. Domestic demand for lead-bearing raw materials remains firm amid persistently high lead battery scrap prices, but export destinations are likely to continue fluctuating according to individual trading opportunities.
While international lead and bullion prices have strengthened, the recent appreciation of the yen has partly offset the benefit to yen-denominated export prices. As a result, FOB prices are expected to remain within the JPY 200–300/kg range, with further movements depending primarily on destination mix rather than international prices alone.
Overall, the market appears to be transitioning from an India-centered export structure toward a more diversified and transaction-driven market, with spot demand from Thailand, Malaysia and other destinations playing an increasingly important role in monthly export performance.
（IRUNIVERSE S. Aoyama）
