The crisis in the Gulf Cooperation Council has kicked off since June 2017 with the severance of diplomatic relations between the four Arab countries of the UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia with Qatar. But recently, in the statement of the 41st Summit of the Gulf Cooperation Organization, Bahrain and the UAE, while ending the siege of Qatar, began the approach of reducing tensions with Qatar and normalizing relations. (Pictured is a view of central Qatar)

Reasons behind normalizing relationships

After three years of siege of Qatar by Saudi Arabia and its allies, their 13 conditions did not succeed in practice. With wealth and financial resources, strong diplomacy and a strong defense pact with the United States, closer ties with Iran, and better relations with Turkey, Qatar has managed to ease Arab pressure as much as possible. Qatar also tried to have a role in regional to gain international status and not be isolated. So it managed to curb pressures and sanctions.

Therefore, Saudi Arabia and its allies have shown more flexible policies to revive the GCC to deal with potential dangers. In fact, the revival of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council provides an opportunity to talk about the collective position of this organization.

Also, the aim of reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Qatar is not merely to reach anti-Iranian goals such as (deprivation of income through Qatari flights). Rather, it seems US President-elect Joe Biden would make changes to the US regional approach in the United States after taking office.

In fact, if relations between Iran and the United States ever improve, and Washington rejoins the nuclear deal, the normalization of relations with Qatar and the unification of the Cooperation Council countries would be a necessary requirement for a collective approach to it. In another dimension, Saudi Arabia and its allies are trying to reduce Turkey's presence in Qatar by moving closer to Doha.

Consequences of normalization of Qatar-Saudi Arabia’s relations

What happened at the recent GCC meeting in Saudi Arabia was not a comprehensive reconciliation; rather it was the first step in easing tensions. However, it has various implications for Qatar and other countries of the Cooperation Council.

In fact, in the current context of falling oil prices and the outbreak of the coronavirus, transportation and trade between the Sanctioning countries and Qatar will resume. The opening of Qatar's borders also has a positive effect on stability and the economy, stock growth, and financial investments in the region. Counter-terrorism and security cooperation within the council may also expand, but bilateral talks will take place as each country has its own differences with Qatar.

Meanwhile, there are still ideological differences between Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Their views on the future of the region still remain different; but reducing tensions and sustaining reconciliation will have positive effects in the short and long term, and will help further convergence in the Cooperation Council.

In the regional sphere, the normalization of Qatar-Saudi Arabia relations could has an impact on reducing the differences between Egypt and Qatar, the possible reduction of Qatar's relations with Iran and Turkey, the normalization of relations between Israel and Qatar, changing the policy of regional media networks, reducing the differences between the two sides over the crises such as Syria, Libya and Yemen. Countries such as Jordan, which reduced its diplomatic relations with Qatar in 2017, will also resume relations with Qatar.

In addition, the reduction of Doha lawsuits against Saudi Arabia and its allies will help reduction of disputes in international organizations. Dialogue within the Cooperation Council will also lead to a more coordinated approach to possible Biden-Iran talks and a vision of major regional challenges. On the other hand, resolving Qatar's disputes with Saudi Arabia and its allies could be a bridge for Qatar's active mediation in Iran's relations with the Cooperation Council.

Farzad Ramezani Bonesh

Senior Researcher and Analyst of International Affairs

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