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May 2023 Statistical Analysis of Crude Lead (Bullion) Export Statistics

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Exchange Rate Trends TTS 3-month

 

(Detailed analysis)

 

In terms of volume, May single month shipment increased for the second consecutive month to 3,461 tons, up 104% from the previous month and 123% from the same month last year, while January-May total shipment were 17,255 tons, up 103% from the same period last year. By major export destination, 690 tons were shipped to South Korea, up 123% MoM, up 101% YoY, and 2,976 tons for the January-May total, up 97% YoY. Exports to Taiwan declined slightly for the third consecutive month, to 1,364 tons, down 79% MoM and 153% YoY, and to 8,484 tons for the January-May total, down 108% YoY. Exports to Vietnam were 0 tons for the eighth consecutive month, and to Thailand declined to 330 tons, down 77% MoM and 100% YoY, for a total of 1,930 tons for the January-May period. -Shipments to India decreased for the first time in three months to 150 tons, down 65% MoM and -% YoY, while those to Indonesia totaled 882 tons for the January-May period, up 1,116% YoY and 0 tons for the fourth consecutive month. The "Others" category totaled 927 tons, of which 924 tons were destined for the U.K. The cumulative total since the beginning of the year is as follows. Looking at the cumulative total since the beginning of the year, shipments to Taiwan, Thailand, India, and "Others" have been on an expansionary trend, supporting a flat total (Table 1, Graph 1).

          

  

The volume composition ratios for the previous month to the current month were: 17% to 20% for South Korea, 52% to 39% for Taiwan, 0% to 0% for Vietnam, 13% to 10% for Thailand, 7% to 4% for India, and 11% to 27% for "Others" (Graph 2).

 

  

 

In terms of value, the single month of May saw an increase from the previous month of 971 million yen, 106% month-over-month and 117% year-on-year, while the cumulative total for January-May was 4,797 million yen, 105% year-on-year (Table 2, Graph 3).

           

 

Overall, average FOB per kilograMoMonth-to-month rose slightly to 281 yen from 277 yen. FOB Korea rebounded from 267 yen to 277 yen, Taiwan rebounded from 266 yen to 274 yen, and FOB Thailand continued to increase from 313 yen to 322 yen, probably due to the weaker yen trend, which was close to flat on a dollar basis (Graph-4, 5).  

  

 

Volume and FOB results by major customs (Figures in () show previous month's results)

Yokohama 428 tons ¥271 (523 tons ¥267)

Osaka 1,886 tons ¥285 (1,375 tons ¥288)

Maizuru 734 tons ¥277 (981 tons ¥270)

 

 

Volume and FOB by Customs by major countries ( ): previous month

Korea  Yokohama 85 tons ¥274 (0 tons)

              Kobe 43 tons ¥264 (21 tons ¥257)

              Osaka 302 tons ¥276 (258 tons ¥264)

              Maizuru 195 tons ¥283 (197 tons ¥272)

                                                                                                                             

Taiwan Yokohama 243 tons ¥269 (360 tons ¥263)

              Osaka 539 tons ¥276 (538 tons ¥264)

              Nagoya 101 tons ¥266 (101 tons ¥261)

              Maizuru 441 tons ¥276 (686 tons ¥271)

                                                                                                                             

Vietnam Osaka 0 tons (0 tons)

              Maizuru 0 tons (0 tons)

                                                                                                                             

Thailand Yokohama 9 tons ¥455 (9 tons ¥455)

              Osaka 121 tons ¥387 (160 tons ¥371)

              Nagoya 161 tons 272 yen (161 tons 272 yen)

                                                                                                                             

India   Yokohama 0 tons ( 53 tons ¥245 )

              Osaka 0 tons (80 tons ¥380)

              Nagoya 0 tons (0 tons)

              Maizuru 98 tons ¥282 (98 tons ¥273)

                                                                                                                             

UK Osaka 924 tons ¥278 (339 tons ¥283)

 

 

(Points to watch for in the future)

In our previous forecast, we predicted that the LME lead market would fall back in May amid a clear weakening yen trend, with unit prices ranging from flat to above 280 yen, and we were almost right. In June, the unit price is expected to be in the 280-yen range due to the continued depreciation of the yen.

 

 

(IRUNIVERSE  S.Aoyama)

 

 

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