In the domestic stainless steel scrap market, the nickel series scrap market is slowly rising due to the rising LME nickel market index and the weaker yen. Cr-based products have remained flat at high prices, partly due to a conscious increase in recycling ratios among stainless specialty steel makers. On a market basis, Series 304s are priced at 200-205 yen and 210-215 yen for manufacturers and export shippers. 316s are priced at 360-400 yen. With Mo high, the downside is also being raised. Any of the generation remains low. Cr-based products are also available at 80-84 yen on a special steel manufacturer's bid basis for 430-only, and 75-80 yen for mixed Cr for export. The term "Cr-based" covers a wide range. Those containing minor amounts of Ni, Nb, and Mo are also available. In particular, the amount of Nb-containing Cr used in automobile mufflers has been increasing rapidly recently.

The LME nickel market touched $20,000 a ton for the first time in a while on the 17th in London. Nickel pig iron (NPI) also rose along with the price. The NPI for nickel is currently at RMB990-1,000 per 1% net nickel content. Due in part to this rise in the NPI, and in part to the challenge of low-carbon production, an increasing number of foreign manufacturers are increasing their scrap input. Taiwan is probably at the top of the list, with the highest purchase price for 304 scrap in the Asian region. In April, it was $1400-$1450 CIF ton, but in May it was $1500-$1550 CIF ton. Simply calculated with an exchange rate of 153 yen it would now be over 230 yen per kilogram on an arrival value basis. Is this price for Taiwan perhaps the highest in Asia?

Therefore, buying of export shippers to Taiwan (ELG, etc.) is also strong ahead of the market. The market was also gradually rising due to the high nickel prices on the LME and the weak yen. The demand for a PRICE of ¥220 as a buying price (for manufacturers) is getting stronger and stronger.

But will they settle there?

(LME nickel quotes (blue $/ton) and NPI quotes (red RMB/Nicontent10-15%))

(Actual market price of 304 scrap in Japan (blue ¥/kg) and TTS exchange rate against the yen (red))

(304 scrap market rate in China (blue RMB/ton) and yen-dollar exchange rate (red))

In the domestic market, NITTETSU STAINLESS, JSP, and Nippon Yakin also followed the lead of the Nagoya companies. Although the highest price in the 304 series has been 210 yen, the strength of the nickel market is behind the mood to push up that level to 215 yen and further. What are the factors behind this: a weaker US dollar, the shutdown of Russian nickel by the UK and US, speculative money flowing into nonferrous metals in general and copper in particular, and the accompanying appreciation, followed by political turmoil in New Caledonia and rumors of supply concerns from Indonesia? Then, political turmoil in New Caledonia, supply concerns from Indonesia, and rumors of Chinese nickel stockpiles. The previous expectation of increased demand for EV batteries seems somewhat overshadowed.

The current price has reached $20,000 for the first time since last September, and we expect another rise in the price in the future. This would put the peak point around $23,000-24,000 or $25,000 as seen in June last year.

With the turmoil in New Caledonia in addition to Russia and China, the world is full of risks.

It is also not unreasonable for China to stockpile nickel in terms of military demand. Russia　will buy from China even if the U.K. and U.S. shut out Russian nickel, regardless of whether the LME excludes it from the designated commodity list. If that China is further exploring nickel stockpiling, it may be meant as a stockpiled raw material for military use.

Cr (400 series) has always been an issue because of its low recycling rate compared to Ni series, and the stainless steel manufacturers are trying to raise the chromium recycling rate somehow.

The three families of specialty steel makers, Daido, Aichi, and Sanyo Tokushu, are leading the way, but recently there has also been a noticeable increase in buying by NIPPON STEEL(Yawata).

However, according to a scrap dealer in the Kansai area.

"It's the new cut 430 series unmixed that fetches a good price, but there are not many of them. Many of them have trace elements added, such as those with niobium, nickel, and molybdenum, and are difficult to sort when they come into the scrap yard. I would be grateful for exports that are bought in bulk by the Cr group in a lump sum, As a specialized dealer, we are trying to sort as finely as possible and encourage manufacturers to evaluate molybdenum, for example, if the product has more than 1% molybdenum content.”

Another industry source said.

“Cr-based products are mostly used in automobiles, where various subtle seasoning (trace ingredients) are added to chrome-based products by each manufacturer, depending on the type of car. It is extremely difficult to sort them. In addition, manufacturers of products that are difficult to sort tend to avoid Cr-based scrap that contains trace elements.” So Cr-based products have complex product specifications due to their application, in order to provide functionality, or due to the differentiation strategy of the manufacturer. Thus, rather pure 430 series scraps seem to be decreasing from the past.

（IRUNIVERSE/MIRU　YT ,translated by S. Aoyama）

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