On July 31st, Rho Motion, a company specializing in predictive analysis of the energy transition market, held a webinar titled “2024 EV & Battery Market Slowdown: Temporary Setback or Long-Term Trend?” in London. Hosted by the company, the webinar covered a wide range of topics, including the EV market, energy storage systems (ESS), recycling, and charging infrastructure.

 

 

Subsidy Termination Adversely Affects Penetration Rate, China Leads the Market

 

　The webinar began by reviewing the market trends in the first half of 2024, particularly mentioning the changes in subsidy schemes in Germany and France, the easing of passenger car emission standards by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the increase in sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) and range extender electric vehicles (ERVs) in China.

 

 

According to researcher George Whitcombe, EV penetration rates have significantly declined in New Zealand and Germany, largely due to policy changes in these countries. In Germany, the sudden termination of government subsidies for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) had a substantial impact on the market, reducing EV penetration by over 5%, with fluctuations down to 20%. Meanwhile, France and the UK continued to grow. Notably, Italy recorded its highest-ever sales in June due to the introduction of a new subsidy scheme in 2024, expected to stimulate market demand in the short term.

 

 

In the first half of 2024, China’s EV penetration rate exceeded 40%, driving market growth. Range extender electric vehicles showed significant growth in China, supported by the Chinese government’s strong promotion of sustainable transportation.

 

 

In the U.S. market, Tesla held a 36% market share but experienced an 11% sales decline in the first half of the year. Other manufacturers like Toyota (up 78%), Ford (up 64%), and Stellantis (up 25%) are filling the gap.

 

 

Delays in Energy Storage System (ESS) Projects, but High Market Growth Continues

 

In the first half of 2024, more than 75 gigawatt-hours were operational in the grid and behind-the-meter markets, surpassing the market size of 2022. The energy storage (ESS) market is expected to grow by approximately 35% year-over-year, driven primarily by Chinese policies that mandate the introduction of energy storage in renewable energy projects.

 

 

However, numerous project delays have impacted the overall market, particularly in the U.S. and China, where project progress has not met expectations. In the first half of the year, only about half of the planned energy storage projects were operational, and for 2024 as a whole, it is estimated that only about 140 gigawatt-hours of the planned 200 gigawatt-hours will be operational. Despite this, the ESS market remains one of the most promising growth markets, with increasing demand for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries. Data shows that China accounts for 54% of global ESS deployments in 2024, demonstrating its dominant position.

 

 

Researcher Pete Tillotson mentioned regional differences in the energy storage market, with California and Texas leading in the U.S., while the UK leads the grid market in Europe. Additionally, residential and commercial energy storage is rapidly growing in Germany and Italy.

 

 

Recyclers Secure Supply through Partnerships with OEMs

 

In the battery recycling market, China continues to dominate, while new production capacities are increasing in North America and Europe. Notably, supply contracts between OEMs and recyclers are increasing to address the ongoing shortage of recycling capacity.

 

 

For example, in the West, major recyclers such as Ascend Elements, Li-Cycle, and Redwood Materials have signed contracts with OEMs to secure waste batteries, ensuring more stable supplies. In Asia, companies like China’s GEM and Korea’s SungEel HiTech and LOHUM are strengthening domestic and international raw material procurement. This trend is expected to continue.

 

 

In China, to address the issue of excess production capacity, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) announced in March this year the suspension of white-list applications for 2024, signaling a restraint on excessive market expansion. Additionally, the government has started providing subsidies for recycling projects, which is seen as crucial support for the recycling industry. Easing restrictions on the import of waste batteries is also being considered to supplement domestic market shortages.

 

 

Lack of Rapid Charging Infrastructure Impacts EV Adoption

 

Researcher Shan Tomouk pointed out that charging infrastructure remains a significant barrier to EV adoption. For example, in the U.S., there is a significant regional disparity in charging infrastructure, with California accounting for 25% of the total, highlighting the gap with other states. Additionally, the disparity in access to charging infrastructure between urban and rural areas is another barrier to EV adoption. In April this year, Tesla announced a temporary limitation on network expansion, slowing the pace of installation.

 

 

Another challenge for EV adoption is that slow chargers remain the mainstream in the West. Public facilities such as schools, hospitals, libraries, and roadside parking lots, where funding or space is limited, mainly use slow AC chargers. In contrast, major retail chains like Walmart in the U.S. and Sainsbury’s in the UK are actively installing rapid charging stations using their large spaces and ample funds. Sainsbury’s in the UK, for instance, has installed 150-kilowatt rapid chargers at various locations and plans to open its 60th charging station soon. This trend is expected to continue.

 

 

On the other hand, in China, public charging infrastructure continues to expand rapidly, with approximately 47% of the charging infrastructure being rapid chargers, a significantly higher proportion than in other countries.

 

 

（IRuniverse）

 

 

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