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TTS Exchange Rate Trend (Three-Month)
Detailed Analysis
Detailed Analysis of Crude Lead Containing Antimony (HS 7801.91)
On a volume basis, exports of HS 7801.91 (crude lead containing antimony) totaled 3,346 tonnes in April 2026, up 35% month on month (m/m) from 2,473 tonnes in March. Compared with 3,007 tonnes in April 2025, exports were 111% year on year (y/y). Cumulative exports for January–April reached 10,595 tonnes, or 116% of the year-earlier level, remaining above last year's pace.
By destination, China remained the largest market with 1,487 tonnes, up 40% m/m, accounting for 44% of total exports. Shipments to Taiwan surged to 522 tonnes (229% m/m), rebounding sharply from the previous month, while exports to India also increased significantly to 647 tonnes (185% m/m). In contrast, exports to South Korea declined to 690 tonnes (83% m/m) and were only 63% of the level recorded a year earlier.
Overall, April saw higher shipments to China, Taiwan and India more than offset the decline in exports to South Korea, lifting total export volumes.(Table 1, Figure 1)
Share of Export Volume by Destination
In terms of the destination mix, China's share remained at a high level, rising slightly from 43% in March to 44% in April, retaining its position as the largest export market. Meanwhile, South Korea's share declined from 34% to 21%, although it remained a major destination. Taiwan's share recovered from 9% to 16%, while India's increased from 14% to 19%.
Overall, April remained China-led, but shipments to Taiwan and India rebounded, resulting in a somewhat more diversified export structure compared with the China- and South Korea-dominated pattern seen in March.(Figure 2)
Value Analysis
On a value basis, exports totaled JPY 997 million in April 2026, up 37% m/m from JPY 727 million in March and 14% y/y from JPY 872 million recorded in April 2025. Cumulative exports for January–April amounted to JPY 3.169 billion, representing 119% of the year-earlier level and remaining above last year's pace.
By destination, exports to China increased to JPY 449 million (144% m/m), maintaining its position as the largest market with 45% of total export value. Shipments to Taiwan also rose sharply to JPY 150 million (230% m/m), while exports to India climbed to JPY 193 million (188% m/m). In contrast, exports to South Korea declined to JPY 204 million (83% m/m).
Overall, higher exports to China, Taiwan and India more than offset the decline in shipments to South Korea, driving total export value higher in April.(Table 2)
FOB Trend
The average export FOB price remained unchanged at JPY 294/kg in April, the same level as in March.
Among the major destinations, the FOB price to China increased from JPY 294/kg to JPY 302/kg, while the price to India also rose from JPY 294/kg to JPY 299/kg. Meanwhile, the FOB price to South Korea remained unchanged at JPY 295/kg, and the price to Taiwan edged up only slightly from JPY 285/kg to JPY 287/kg.
Although the Japanese yen remained weak against major currencies, which would normally support higher yen-denominated export prices, the overall average FOB price stayed flat, suggesting that upward price momentum remained limited. Nevertheless, the recovery in unit prices for shipments to China and India provided support for the overall average, indicating that the price adjustment phase seen through March may be approaching a bottom.
In April, unlike the previous month, the LME lead price rose from USD 1,880/tonne to USD 1,922.65/tonne, while the international bullion price increased from USD 1,787.81/tonne to USD 1,824.33/tonne. However, the overall export FOB price remained unchanged at JPY 294/kg, indicating that the rebound in international prices was not fully reflected in yen-denominated export prices.
The yen also remained on a weakening trend, which should have provided additional support for export prices in yen terms. However, FOB prices showed only limited improvement. This suggests that although higher international prices were partially reflected in stronger unit prices for shipments to China and India, sluggish prices for exports to South Korea and changes in the destination mix restrained the overall price level.
Overall, April can be characterized as a month in which export prices entered a consolidation phase despite the recovery in international lead prices.(Figure 3)
International Bullion Price Trend (USD/t, Three Months)
Export Volume and FOB Price by Major Customs Office (JPY/kg) (Figures in Parentheses: Previous Month)
Export Volume and FOB Price by Major Destination (JPY/kg) (Figures in Parentheses: Previous Month)
Outlook
Exports of crude lead containing antimony (HS 7801.91) are expected to remain at a high level, led primarily by shipments to China and South Korea. Exports to China reached 1,487 tonnes in April, one of the highest levels on record, while shipments to South Korea continued to hold at around 700 tonnes.
In Japan, lead battery scrap prices have climbed into the JPY 120/kg range, tightening the domestic supply of feedstock and supporting firm overseas demand for raw materials. At the same time, both the LME lead price and the international bullion price have shown signs of recovery. If the yen remains weak, export FOB prices are likely to remain around JPY 300/kg.
However, growing dependence on China and South Korea means that procurement policies and import regulations in these two countries will remain the most significant risk factors going forward.
Analysis of Other Crude Lead (HS 7801.99)
Volume Analysis
On a volume basis, exports of HS 7801.99 (other crude lead) totaled 2,805 tonnes in April 2026, down to 84% m/m from 3,343 tonnes in March, marking the second consecutive monthly decline. Nevertheless, exports remained 146% y/y compared with 1,923 tonnes in April 2025. Cumulative exports for January–April reached 12,518 tonnes, or 128% of the year-earlier level, maintaining a robust pace.
By destination, exports to China declined to 2,290 tonnes (70% m/m, 158% y/y), but China remained by far the largest market, accounting for approximately 82% of total exports. Meanwhile, shipments to Thailand, which had been zero in March, surged to 361 tonnes, while exports to India recovered to 142 tonnes. Although the degree of concentration on China eased somewhat, the overall export structure remained overwhelmingly China-centered.
Overall, April saw lower total export volumes due to reduced shipments to China, although increases to Thailand and India partially offset the decline. On a cumulative basis, exports continued to exceed last year's level by a wide margin, indicating that the overall high-volume export trend remains intact. (Table 1, Figure 1)
Share of Export Volume by Destination
In terms of the destination mix, China's share declined from 99% in March to 82% in April, but China remained the overwhelmingly dominant export market. Meanwhile, Thailand, which recorded no shipments in March, expanded rapidly to account for 13% of total exports, while India's share recovered to 5%. Shipments to South Korea resumed on a limited scale, whereas exports to Taiwan again fell to zero.
Overall, April saw some diversification of export destinations through increased shipments to Thailand and India, despite the continuation of the China-dominated structure. However, with China still accounting for more than 80% of total exports, the country's procurement trends continue to be the single most important factor influencing the market. ( Figure 2)
Value Analysis
On a value basis, exports totaled JPY 937 million in April 2026, equivalent to 90% m/m from JPY 1.039 billion in March, marking the second consecutive monthly decline. However, exports increased sharply to 168% y/y compared with JPY 558 million in April 2025.
Exports to China declined to JPY 713 million (70% m/m, 173% y/y), but still accounted for approximately 76% of total export value. Meanwhile, exports to Thailand surged to JPY 164 million, while shipments to India recovered to JPY 43 million, slightly easing the heavy concentration on China.
Cumulative exports for January–April reached JPY 3.979 billion, or 140% of the year-earlier level. Although exports to China, totaling JPY 3.509 billion (263% y/y), continued to drive overall growth, the sharp increase in shipments to Thailand also contributed, resulting in a modest diversification of export value away from an exclusively China-focused structure. (Table 2)
FOB Trend
The average export FOB price rose from JPY 311/kg in March to JPY 334/kg in April, returning to the upper end of the recent trading range. Among the major destinations, the FOB price to China edged up from JPY 309/kg to JPY 311/kg, maintaining a relatively high level, while the FOB price to India rebounded from JPY 291/kg to JPY 304/kg, reflecting both stronger demand and the recovery in shipment volumes.
On the external front, the LME lead price increased from USD 1,880/tonne in March to USD 1,922.65/tonne in April, while the international bullion price recovered from USD 1,787.81/tonne to USD 1,824.33/tonne. In addition, the continued depreciation of the Japanese yen provided further support for yen-denominated export prices. As a result, both the recovery in international prices and favorable exchange-rate movements contributed to higher FOB quotations.
Overall, April was characterized by a firming of export prices, supported not only by sustained high-priced shipments to China but also by the emergence of higher-value exports to Thailand, lifting the average FOB price from the low-JPY 300/kg range into the mid-JPY 300/kg range. (Figure3)
Export Volume and FOB Price by Major Customs Office (JPY/kg) (Figures in Parentheses: Previous Month)
Export Volume and FOB Price by Major Destination (JPY/kg) (Figures in Parentheses: Previous Month)
Outlook
Exports of other crude lead (HS 7801.99) are expected to remain at a relatively high level, led primarily by demand from China. In Japan, intensifying competition for raw materials, driven by soaring lead battery scrap prices, has spread to the broader lead scrap market, supporting exports of crude lead products. Although exports became somewhat more diversified in April with increased shipments to Thailand, China remains by far the largest destination.
On the pricing front, the recovery in both the LME lead price and the international bullion price, together with the continued weakness of the yen, is likely to keep FOB prices above JPY 300/kg. Nevertheless, the high degree of dependence on the Chinese market means that changes in Chinese procurement demand or import regulations will continue to represent the principal downside risk to export volumes.
(IRuniverse/MIRU S. Aoyama)
