China’s Antimony Export Restrictions Push Prices to Record Highs
On August 15, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced that from September 15, antimony, a rare metal used in semiconductor materials, and its related products will be subject to export restrictions. The international price of antimony is already at an all-time high, making this a potent countermeasure for China, which accounts for nearly half of the world’s production, against Western countries. However, the price movements of the regulated minerals vary, and market reactions are yet to be fully seen.
Antimony Prices Surge Due to Resource Depletion Concerns Since June
Related Articles: China to Restrict Exports of Antimony and Related Products from September 15 | MIRU
On July 25, the international price of antimony reached a record high of $23,250/ton. After hitting a peak in early June, prices continued to rise. The driving force behind this is the concern over the depletion of this rare mineral, coupled with steady military demand, which has spurred buying activity.
Past 3 Months’ Antimony Price Trends (99.65% China) ($/ton)
Past 20 Years’ Antimony Price Trends (99.65% China) ($/ton)
Related Articles: Antimony Prices Continue to Hit Record Highs Due to Resource Depletion and Military Demand Expectations | MIRU
Related Articles: Current Status and Future Outlook of Antimony Resources | MIRU
Gallium Prices Stabilize, Germanium Faces Supply Concerns, Graphite Declines
Coincidentally, August marks one year since China began its series of mineral export restrictions, starting with gallium and germanium. Following the announcement in early July of the same year, there was a panic-driven buying spree, especially for gallium. However, with the development of substitutes and the expansion of alternative sources, prices have stabilized, albeit still at high levels.
Past 3 Years’ Gallium Price Trends (EU Spot Market) ($/kg)
On the other hand, germanium, which initially saw a slow reaction due to sufficient inventory, has seen prices surge, especially in 2024, as supply shortages became more apparent. Market observations noted, “Following the announcement of the regulation, there was still stock available, and demand for fiber optics was slightly declining, so there wasn’t a panic-buying situation like with gallium. However, as stocks began to deplete in 2024, prices started to rise significantly,” said Yoshiyuki Nishino, Vice President of Hayakawa Company.
Past 3 Years’ Metal Germanium and Germanium Oxide Price Trends (99.99% China) ($/kg)
Related Articles: “China’s Germanium Can Be Imported with Proper Applications,” Says Hayakawa Company Vice President Nishino | MIRU
In December 2023, China also implemented export restrictions on graphite, a material used in batteries. However, since countries like Japan have established supply agreements with Canada and other producers outside China, the reaction has been limited. Prices of regulated spherical graphite have consistently declined.
Past 1 Year’s Spherical Graphite Price Trends (99.95% min 17um max in China) (RMB/ton)
U.S. Mining Companies and Ore Import Routes Could Be Key Factors
Due to the significant demand for antimony in military applications, export restrictions on this mineral carry strong political implications. Western countries have long anticipated that China might use antimony as a political card. In the U.S., antimony mining companies are already awaiting government approval, and it is expected that the approval process may accelerate in response to China’s actions.
At the same time, China relies on imports for antimony concentrates. Much of the ore is imported from countries like Thailand, Myanmar, and Russia, with China exporting the processed products. Therefore, any changes in the raw material import routes could also affect the impact of export restrictions on antimony prices.
Nevertheless, antimony remains a rare mineral with concerns about resource depletion. Unless substitutes are developed, the upward price trend is unlikely to change.
(IR Universe Kure)
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