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Exchange Rate Trends TTS 3-month

 
（Detailed Analysis）
■On a volume basis, the single month of August saw a sharp decline for the second consecutive month to 2,588 tons, the lowest level since February of this year, m/m 85%, y/y 57%, while the total for January through August was 28,642 tons, y/y 93%. The y/y decline widened due to the significant decrease in the current month.

By Major Export Destinations

Shipments to South Korea saw a significant decline for the second consecutive month, totaling 549 tons, down 60% month-on-month (m/m) and 60% year-on-year (y/y). The cumulative total for January to August was 6,701 tons, up 127% y/y.

Shipments to Taiwan increased significantly to 883 tons, up 147% m/m and 186% y/y, but the cumulative total from January to August was 6,606 tons, down 59% y/y, indicating continued poor performance since the beginning of this fiscal year.

Shipments to Vietnam remained at zero tons for the fifth consecutive month.

Shipments to Thailand also recorded zero tons, with no change m/m or y/y. However, the cumulative total for January to August reached 1,534 tons, down 55% y/y.

Shipments to India totaled 297 tons (of which 47 tons were bullion), marking a significant drop for the second consecutive month and reaching the lowest level since February this year, down 39% m/m and 14% y/y. The cumulative total for January to August was 11,119 tons, up 219% y/y.

Shipments to "Others" totaled 859 tons, of which 534 tons were destined for China.

In the cumulative comparison, while South Korea and India have seen significant increases, shipments to all other destinations continue to decline sharply across the board (Table 1, Graph 1)

■Quantity Composition Ratio for the Previous Month and Current Month:

South Korea: 30% → 21%
Taiwan: 20% → 34%
Vietnam: 0% → 0%
Thailand: 7% → 0%
India: 25% → 11%
"Others": 18% → 33%
India's share, which typically exceeded 40%, has significantly decreased (Graph 2).

■On a monetary basis, there was a significant decline for the second consecutive month in August, totaling 815 million yen, down 80% month-on-month (m/m) and 63% year-on-year (y/y). This is the lowest level since February, similar to the quantity. The cumulative total for January to August was 8.84 billion yen, up 103% y/y. Although the cumulative quantity fell below the previous year, the monetary value remained above last year’s level (Table 2, Graph 3).

■The overall average FOB price per kilogram dropped for the first time in five months, from 337 yen last month to 315 yen this month. 
Despite the stronger yen, the price for South Korea rose from 330 yen to 346 yen. 
For Taiwan, the price rebounded significantly from 319 yen to 346 yen.
For Thailand, there was no result compared to 413 yen; 
the price for India increased from 347 yen to 361 yen, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth. 
"Others" saw a significant decline, from 326 yen to 181 yen. 
LME lead prices fell for the third consecutive month, from $2,114 to $2,002.

Despite the stronger yen, the dollar-based average FOB price remained nearly flat overall. In yen terms, the extremely low unit price for "Others" was the main factor pulling the average down (Graphs 4 and 5).
 
 

Main Customs Volume and FOB Results (Figures in parentheses indicate previous month's results)
 

Volume and FOB by Customs by major countries ( ): previous month

(Upcoming Highlights)

■In the previous forecast, it was expected that the quantity in August would definitely range between 3,000 and 4,000 tons, and that the unit price would drop to around 300 yen due to the strong yen and lower LME prices. However, the extreme underperformance in shipments to India resulted in a total below 3,000 tons.

■If the poor performance in shipments to India continues in September, the total quantity will likely fall below 3,000 tons again.

(IRuniverse/MIRU S. Aoyama）

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