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Lead Battery Scrap Market Up Dates 2018#2 Decline Trend toward C

2018.03.28 15:01

 Domestic market for lead battery scrap in Japan has been generally in a bearish trend. In the backdrop there are several factors like domestic lead price quotations decline as well as a supply increase. Assuming more difficult or closed export to Korea hereafter, the momentum to deliver the scrap to domestic lead smelters is persistent.

 

In Eastern Japan, pressure from the excessive cargo availability has been so prominent that the current market prices have declined to around JPY 105/kg (for automotive battery, same hereafter ). Further the cargo acceptance restriction by Hosokura Metal Mining imposes downward pressure. Slack of supply-demand has been caused partly because of the increased generation of lead battery scrap more than usual years due to consecutive cold days in January and February. Hosokura Metal keeps ample stock of lead battery scarp.

 

A source in the company said

 “As we have been able to satisfy our needs through procurement from the existing suppliers up to this time, we do not dare to purchase the cargos which have flown out for export. The circumstances around lead battery scrap and market sentiment have changed utterly. I feel the market is turning to the buyers gradually.”

 

While in Western Japan ,Toho Zinc Chigirishima idled the furnaces in March and a certain secondary smelters close cargo acceptance due to delayed battery dismantling in Osaka, cargo excessiveness could be felt but a second look confirms that the current market prices is hovering around JPY 110-115/kg not lower than Eastern Japan because of strong buying minds of the shippers with remaining ceiling of export for Korea in Kyoto and of the secondary smelters in the district simultaneously.

 

 

グラフ

 

 

グラフ

 

 

グラフ

 

 

The LME lead market as the industrial index has declined over $300 from $2,680/ton early February down to $2, 366/ton presently. Domestic quotations for lead have fallen JPY36 from JPY344/kg late February down to present JPY308 /kg(as of 3/27).

 

A source of manager in a major lead-zinc smelter said “ If the present market price level of LME continues, the ideal market prices for lead battery scrap will be around JPY85/kg”, of which possibility for dipping should not be small. While the lead battery scrap prices have been hovering higher than LME market until today, it is expected that the domestic lead battery scrap market keep declining in reverse hereafter due to demand-supply factors when LME market soars.

 

 

(Export Trend of Lead Battery Scrap from Japan) unit: ton 

表

 

 

Though at monthly average 7,000-8,000 tons of leas battery scrap has been exported to Korea previously, even a single application for export to Korea has not been newly permitted  from June last year till today.

 

If the trend continues, by July or August this year the export to Korea will decline to nothing in a high possibility. If the volumes in this picture flow back to the domestic market, the domestic demand-supply of lead battery scrap will further slack accompanying a significant market declines. As the lead battery scrap market declines automatically lead to that of recycled lead selling prices, domestic lead battery manufacturers will plot to depress the recycled lead prices citing the scrap price fall.

 

A source in a elementary lead smelter said,” Because right now bullion can be sold well in the overseas market, it is not highly expected that as if once upon a time, the recycled lead prices would sharply fall due to lead battery scrap prices steep fall and consequently lead battery scrap overflow in the market.”

 

His concern expressing “not highly expected” means it should be materialistic that secondary smelters firmly accept the scrap even more than elementary smelters. I wish no confusion will be caused on full scale ” return flow” of lead battery scrap to the domestic fields when a certain number of the secondary smelters already has closed and/or restricted cargo acceptances.

 

 

(IRUNIVERSE S. Aoyama)

 

 

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