Rare earth market conditions from late February to early March 2026 showed an upward trend. Many materials moved higher on March 6, led by light rare earth metal neodymium, where expectations for further price increases remain strong. However, the expansion of conflict in the Middle East and the accompanying surge in crude oil prices have raised concerns about rising refining costs, creating some uncertainty about the outlook.
________________________________________
■ China Index Shows Signs of Stalling in March
The rare earth price index for February, announced on March 4 by the Association of China Rare Earth Industry, rose to 285.4 from 235.3 in January. The monthly low was 257.6 on February 2 and the high was 307.5 on February 27, with prices trending upward toward the end of the month.
However, the average rare earth price index stood at 285.2 on March 10, indicating that the upward momentum has slowed since the start of March.
China Rare Earth Price Index Trend
(Source: Association of China Rare Earth Industry)
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), in a report through March 5, noted that “downstream metal plants have adopted a more cautious, observant stance, and some traders have actively lowered prices to promote shipments.” One factor behind this appears to be concerns that escalating conflict in the Middle East could increase rare earth refining costs.
________________________________________
■ Yttrium and Medium-to-Heavy Rare Earths Also Rise
Neodymium Metal Price Trend (99% FOB China) ($/kg)
Neodymium, a light rare earth widely used in magnets, reached $167.25/kg on March 6. This represented a sharp 7% increase from the previous week, pushing prices to their highest level since July 2022.
Supply concerns for magnet-related light rare earths have been strong since before the Lunar New Year holiday, partly due to operating restrictions at separation plants following production controls imposed by Chinese authorities. As a result, a generally optimistic outlook for future prices remains firmly in place.
________________________________________
Yttrium Oxide Price Trend (99.999% FOB China) ($/kg)
Other rare earths also rose across the board on March 6. Yttrium oxide reached $23.05/kg, its highest level in roughly 12 and a half years since November 2013. Over the past year, prices have increased 3.4 times.
Yttrium oxide surged beginning in autumn 2025 amid concerns about potential resource depletion. Although its rise slowed in early 2026, upward momentum has resumed.
________________________________________
Dysprosium Metal Price Trend (99.5% FOB China) ($/kg)
Terbium Metal Pri ce Trend (99% FOB China) ($/kg)
Dysprosium Metal, a representative medium-to-heavy rare earth, rose to a midpoint price of $315/kg on the same day, while Terbium Metal climbed to $1,340/kg. Dysprosium reached its highest level since October 2024, while terbium hit its highest since December 2023.
________________________________________
Lanthanum Metal Price Trend (99% FOB China) ($/kg)
By contrast, Lanthanum Metal has remained flat since late December 2025.
________________________________________
Developments
March 10
According to China’s trade statistics for January–February 2026 released by the General Administration of Customs on March 10, rare earth exports totaled 10,468 tonnes, up 23.0% year on year.
Related Article
https://www.iru-miru.com/article/81565
March 4
Dateline Resources, an Australian resource company listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), announced on March 4 that it had begun exploration at a heavy rare earth deposit in the United States that it recently acquired.
Related Article
https://www.iru-miru.com/article/81421
March 2
Lynas Rare Earths, the Australian resource major backed by the Japanese government, announced on March 2 on its website that it had received approval from the Malaysian government to extend its rare earth refining operations in the country for another 10 years.
Related Article
https://www.iru-miru.com/article/81403
February 25
Jiji Press reported on February 25 that the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Japan’s official development assistance implementing agency, would begin providing technical support to Malaysia for the development of critical mineral resources, including rare earths.
Related Article
https://www.iru-miru.com/article/81317
________________________________________
(IR UNIVERSE KURE, translated by S. Aoyama)
