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TTS Exchange Rate Trend (3-Month)
(Detailed Analysis)
■Volume Basis
February 2026 exports totaled 5,942 tons, up 114% m/m from January (5,204 tons).
Compared with the same month last year, volume surged 149% y/y, far exceeding the prior-year level.
Cumulative exports for January–February reached 11,146 tons, up 143% y/y, maintaining strong growth through the first two months of the year.
→ The underlying trend remains firm.
Major Export Destinations
China
4,199 tons
126% m/m, 388% y/y
January–February cumulative: 7,528 tons, 375% y/y.
Accounting for roughly 70% of total exports, China remained by far the dominant market.
→ The core destination driving total growth.
South Korea
441 tons
68% m/m, 62% y/y
January–February cumulative: 1,088 tons, 89% y/y.
→ Still functioning as a supplementary market, though somewhat soft.
Taiwan
341 tons
52% m/m, 24% y/y
January–February cumulative: 991 tons, 58% y/y.
→ Showing correction after January’s sharp increase.
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Vietnam
Zero tons (unchanged from January).
→ No spot exports recorded.
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Thailand
181 tons
2,011% m/m surge.
January–February cumulative: 190 tons.
→ Spot cargoes emerged despite being a weak market.
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India
779 tons
143% m/m, 188% y/y
January–February cumulative: 1,325 tons, 73% y/y.
→ Monthly recovery was evident, though cumulative volume remains below last year.
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Others
1 ton
4% m/m
January–February cumulative: 24 tons, 2% y/y.
→ Effectively negligible.
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Summary
In February, exports increased both m/m and y/y, with crude lead (bullion) exports maintaining high levels from the start of the year.
Structurally:
• China retained a dominant position at roughly 71% of total volume
• South Korea and Taiwan showed softer trends
• India recovered
• Thailand saw spot growth
• Other regions remained limited
This further highlighted an export structure centered on China with surrounding supplementary markets.
China’s rapid increase was the key factor lifting total exports.
→ For the time being, a firm market led by Chinese demand is likely to continue.
(Table 1, Graph 1)
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■Volume Composition Ratio: January → February
• China: 64% → 71%
• South Korea: 12% → 7%
• Taiwan: 12% → 6%
• Vietnam: 0% → 0%
• Thailand: 0% → 3%
• Indonesia: 0% → 0%
• India: 10% → 13%
• Others: 0% → 0%
Additional Notes
China expanded its share again in February, rising from 64% to 71%.
This reinforced an extreme concentration toward China, which accounted for roughly 70% of all exports.
Meanwhile:
• South Korea fell from 12% to 7%
• Taiwan halved from 12% to 6%
• India rose from 10% to 13%
• Thailand recovered from 0% to 3% on a spot basis
Among non-China markets, only India increased its presence.
Vietnam, Indonesia, and Others remained minimal, offering little supplementary demand.
→ The overall trend shows China-led concentration strengthening further, while peripheral markets move selectively and intermittently.
(Graph 2)
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■Value Basis
February 2026 export value totaled ¥1,856 million, up 117% m/m from January (¥1,593 million), and up 162% y/y.
Volume also increased to 5,942 tons (114% m/m, 149% y/y).
→ Export value rose faster than volume, reflecting both higher shipments and firmer unit prices.
January–February cumulative value reached ¥3,449 million, up 151% y/y.
Cumulative volume was 11,146 tons, up 143% y/y, meaning value growth slightly outpaced volume growth.
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Main Driver
The primary factor pushing up total exports versus last year was, as with volume, the surge to China.
Exports to China in February totaled ¥1,303 million, up 127% m/m and 415% y/y.
Volume to China also rose to 4,199 tons (388% y/y).
China accounted for approximately 70% of total export value.
________________________________________
By Destination Value
• South Korea: ¥132 million (69% m/m, 65% y/y)
→ Declined in line with volume.
• Taiwan: ¥102 million (53% m/m, 25% y/y)
→ Contracted alongside lower volume.
• Thailand: ¥81 million (up sharply from ¥4 million in January)
→ In line with the surge to 181 tons.
• India: ¥238 million (144% m/m, 211% y/y)
→ Recovered together with volume growth to 779 tons.
________________________________________
Summary
Both volume and value recovered m/m in February, and both posted sharp gains y/y.
→ Higher volume was the main factor, but improved average prices made value growth even stronger.
Structurally, the pattern of total exports being driven overwhelmingly by China became even clearer.
(Table 2, Graph 3)
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■Average FOB Price
Average FOB rose from ¥306/kg in January to ¥312/kg in February, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase.
The uptrend that began in autumn 2025 continued, with prices remaining near recent highs.
________________________________________
■FOB by Destination
• China: ¥307 → ¥310/kg
• South Korea: ¥297 → ¥298/kg
• Taiwan: ¥294 → ¥299/kg
• Thailand: ¥476 → ¥449/kg
• India: ¥302 → ¥306/kg
• Others: ¥745 → ¥274/kg (sharp decline after January’s spot spike)
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External Price Environment
• LME Lead: $1,998 → $1,916/t, lower m/m
• International bullion prices also appeared soft, indicating a corrective tone globally.
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Overall Assessment
While LME lead prices declined in February, Japan’s average FOB rose to ¥312/kg.
Supported by:
• Higher China prices (¥307 → ¥310)
• Firm South Korea and Taiwan prices
• India rising to ¥306/kg
Thailand and Others declined, but major markets maintained firm prices.
→ Despite weaker international lead prices, Japan’s export FOB remained elevated, reflecting tight domestic supply-demand conditions and yen weakness.
(Graphs 4 and 5)
Crude Lead (Bullion) International Price Trend (USD/T, 3 Months)
Volume and FOB (JPY/kg) Results by Major Customs Offices (figures in parentheses indicate the previous month)
Volume and FOB (JPY/kg) Results by Major Destination Countries / Customs Offices (figures in parentheses indicate the previous month)
■Outlook
China-Led Structure to Continue, but Domestic Raw Material Competition Intensifies
China is expected to remain the largest destination, accounting for 60–70% of total exports.
Meanwhile, domestic competition for lead battery scrap and nest lead has intensified, meaning export availability is increasingly influenced by domestic supply-demand conditions.
High Volume Likely, but Monthly Volatility to Increase
Current exports around 5,000 tons remain high, but may fluctuate within a 4,000–6,500 ton range depending on spot deals, Chinese demand, and domestic raw material availability.
South Korea and Taiwan as Supplementary Markets
South Korea remains a stop-start market depending on margins and inventories. Taiwan may recover depending on pricing, but lacks consistency.
Prices Remain Firm, Testing Consolidation Above ¥300/kg
With yen weakness, elevated battery scrap prices (above ¥120/kg), and rising nest lead prices, crude lead FOB is likely to stay around ¥300–310/kg even if LME lead softens.
Greater Linkage With Domestic Battery Scrap Market
Historically more tied to LME and FX moves, pricing is now increasingly driven by domestic raw material tightness.
If battery scrap and nest lead prices stay high, crude lead export FOB may remain stronger than international lead prices would suggest.
Main Risks: Regulation and Policy
Stricter controls on waste lead battery exports, tighter scrap yard regulations, and stronger monitoring of improper smelting/export flows could rapidly alter raw material circulation.
China’s own import restrictions or environmental policy shifts also remain major risk factors.
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→ Overall, the base-case scenario is:
A high-volume China-led export market, while domestic competition for battery scrap and nest lead increasingly determines both price and volume.
The market is shifting from one focused only on Chinese demand to one where domestic raw material conditions are equally important.
（IRUNIVERSE S. Aoyama）
