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TTS Exchange Rate Trend (3-Month)
(Detailed Analysis of Antimony-Containing Crude Lead)
【Quantity Basis】
Exports of HS7801.91 (crude lead containing antimony) totaled 2,473 tons in March 2026, equivalent to 121% of the previous month level (2,041 tons), recovering after two months. Meanwhile, compared with 2,396 tons in the same month last year, exports stood at 103% of the year-earlier level, slightly exceeding the previous year while remaining broadly flat.
For the January–March cumulative period, exports reached 7,249 tons, equivalent to 118% of the same period last year, maintaining levels above the previous year.
By destination, shipments to China recovered to 1,061 tons (145% of the previous month level), once again surpassing the 1,000-ton mark and accounting for approximately 43% of total exports, making China the principal market. Since exports to China had been near zero in the same month a year earlier, the year-on-year comparison indicates a clearly structural expansion trend.
Meanwhile, shipments to South Korea rebounded sharply to 834 tons (189% of the previous month level), recovering from the weakness seen in February. However, they amounted to only 78% of the same month last year level, remaining in a relatively subdued range.
Shipments to Taiwan declined to 228 tons (67% of the previous month level) and remained weak at 32% of the year-earlier level.
Exports to India fell to 350 tons (66% of the previous month level), although they still stood at 660% of the same month last year level, maintaining an elevated level relative to the prior year.
Overall, March was characterized by recovery in shipments to China and South Korea supporting total exports, while adjustments in Taiwan and India continued.
(Table 1, Graph 1).
【 Quantity Composition Ratio】
■ Quantity Share by Destination (Previous Month → Current Month)
• China: 36% → 43%
→ Recovered further and strengthened its position as the core market.
• South Korea: 22% → 34%
→ Rebounded sharply, regaining presence.
• Taiwan: 17% → 9%
→ Declined significantly, with weakening demand becoming more apparent.
• Vietnam: 0% → 0% (no shipment recorded)
• Thailand: 0% → 0%
• Indonesia: 0% → 0%
• India: 26% → 14%
→ Share declined despite remaining above year-earlier levels.
• Others: 0% → 0%
■ Supplemental Assessment
In March, China further expanded its share to 43% and remained the largest export destination, while South Korea also recovered sharply to 34%, together accounting for nearly 80% of total exports.
On the other hand, Taiwan and India saw their shares decline, indicating some adjustment in previously diversified demand.
As a result, the export structure shifted from the more dispersed composition seen in February toward a “China–South Korea dual-core structure.”
However, given the spot-oriented nature of shipments and the volatility in destination composition, short-term fluctuations in export destinations are likely to persist.
(Graph 2).
【Value Basis】
In March 2026, export value totaled JPY 727 million, equivalent to 118% of the previous month level (JPY 617 million), recovering after a decline in February.
Compared with JPY 718 million in the same month last year, exports stood at 101% of the year-earlier level, remaining essentially flat.
For the January–March cumulative period, exports reached JPY 2.14 billion, equivalent to 114% of the same period last year, maintaining a level above the previous year.
■ Breakdown by Destination
● China
JPY 312 million, equivalent to 137% of the previous month level.
China remained the largest market and accounted for approximately 43% of total export value.
● South Korea
JPY 246 million, equivalent to 187% of the previous month level, rebounding significantly from February.
● Taiwan
JPY 65 million, equivalent to 65% of the previous month level, declining sharply.
● India
JPY 103 million, equivalent to 64% of the previous month level, showing adjustment from February despite remaining firm compared with the previous year.
■ Summary
In March, the recovery in exports to China and South Korea lifted overall export value, offsetting weakness in Taiwan and India.
Although shipment composition remained volatile, the value structure increasingly reflected concentration toward China and South Korea, while India moved into a supplementary position.
(Table 2,).
【FOB Trend】
The overall average FOB price declined from JPY 303/kg in February to JPY 294/kg in March, marking a reversal after recent firmness.
■ FOB Trend by Major Destination
• China: JPY 305 → JPY 294/kg, lower
• South Korea: JPY 298 → JPY 295/kg, slightly lower
• Taiwan: JPY 299 → JPY 285/kg, lower
• India: JPY 305 → JPY 294/kg, lower
■ External Price Environment
• LME Lead: USD 1,916/t → USD 1,880/t, lower
• International Bullion Price: remained relatively firm despite some fluctuations.
■ Overall Assessment
In March, yen-denominated FOB prices softened across major destinations, broadly reflecting weaker LME lead prices.
Although the yen remained weak, which generally supported export pricing, the decline in international lead prices outweighed the currency effect, resulting in lower FOB values.
As a result, March can be characterized as a month of moderate price adjustment following the stronger levels seen earlier in the year.
(Graph3).
International Bullion Price Trend (USD/T) – 3 Months
Quantity and FOB Performance by Major Customs Offices
(Figures in parentheses indicate the previous month)
Quantity and FOB (JPY/kg) by Major Destination Country
(Figures in parentheses indicate the previous month)
【Outlook】
• China-led demand expected to continue
China is likely to maintain its position as the dominant export destination, accounting for around 40% of total exports, while South Korea is expected to continue functioning as a supplementary major market. As a result, overall demand conditions will remain highly dependent on procurement trends in East Asia.
• Shipment volumes expected to remain firm but volatile
Although export volumes are likely to stay at relatively high levels, the spot-oriented nature of transactions suggests continued fluctuations within an approximate 2,000–3,000 ton monthly range.
• Taiwan and India to remain secondary markets
Taiwan and India are expected to continue playing complementary roles, but shipment stability remains uncertain and temporary fluctuations in procurement are likely.
• Prices likely to move into a consolidation phase
With LME lead prices softening, upward momentum in export prices appears limited. However, the weak yen may provide downside support, suggesting a likely trading range centered around the JPY290/kg level.
• Key risk factors
Should Chinese procurement slow, South Korean recycled lead demand weaken, environmental regulations tighten, or exchange rates reverse direction, both export volumes and pricing could experience heightened volatility.
■ Overall Outlook
The most likely near-term scenario is a “China–South Korea-led firm but volatile market, with prices entering a consolidation phase.”
(Other crude lead / Bullion Detailed Analysis)
【Quantity Basis】
Exports of HS7801.99 (other crude lead / bullion) totaled 3,343 tons in March 2026, equivalent to 86% of the previous month level (3,901 tons), declining after February’s sharp increase.
Compared with 1,411 tons in the same month last year, exports stood at 237% of the year-earlier level, remaining at a substantially elevated level.
For the January–March cumulative period, exports reached 9,713 tons, equivalent to 123% of the same period last year, maintaining levels above the previous year.
■ Major Export Destinations
● China
Exports totaled 3,294 tons, equivalent to 95% of the previous month level, easing slightly from February but remaining firm.
Compared with the same month last year, exports stood at 261% of the year-earlier level.
China accounted for approximately 99% of total exports, maintaining overwhelming dominance.
→ China-centered export dependence has become even more pronounced.
● Taiwan
Exports totaled 16 tons, equivalent to 5% of the previous month level, remaining negligible.
Compared with the same month last year, exports stood at 5% of the year-earlier level.
→ Supplementary demand remained extremely weak.
● India
Exports totaled 11 tons, equivalent to 4% of the previous month level, falling sharply.
Compared with the same month last year, exports stood at 1% of the year-earlier level.
→ The contraction in Indian demand became increasingly evident.
● Other Destinations
Exports totaled 22 tons, equivalent to 2,200% of the previous month level, although the absolute volume remained limited.
Compared with the same month last year, exports stood at 7% of the year-earlier level.
→ Still limited to sporadic spot shipments.
● South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia
No shipments recorded.
■ Summary
In March, total export volume declined from February but remained at a historically elevated level relative to the previous year.
Structurally, exports became almost entirely concentrated on China, with China accounting for 99% of total shipments, while exports to India and Taiwan contracted sharply.
As a result, the market structure increasingly reflects a “high-level but highly concentrated China-dependent market.”
(Table 1, Graph 1).
【Quantity Composition Ratio】
■ Quantity Share by Destination (Previous Month → Current Month)
• China: 89% → 99%
→ Further strengthened its overwhelming dominance, becoming virtually the sole export destination.
• South Korea: 0% → 0% (no shipment recorded)
• Taiwan: 0% → 0%
→ Remained at a negligible level.
• Vietnam: 0% → 0%
• Thailand: 5% → 0%
→ Shipments disappeared.
• Indonesia: 0% → 0%
• India: 6% → 0%
→ Declined sharply, effectively disappearing as an export destination.
• Others: 0% → 1%
→ Minor spot shipments emerged.
■ Supplemental Assessment
In March, China expanded its share further to 99%, reinforcing an almost exclusive market structure.
Meanwhile, Thailand and India, which had maintained limited shares in February, effectively disappeared, while Taiwan and other destinations remained negligible.
As a result, the export structure shifted from February’s still somewhat diversified composition toward an even more pronounced “China single-market dependence” pattern.
However, given the spot-oriented nature of exports, short-term fluctuations in destination composition remain possible.
(Graph 2).
【 Value Basis】
In March 2026, export value totaled JPY 1.039 billion, equivalent to 84% of the previous month level (JPY 1.239 billion), declining from February.
Compared with JPY 1.102 billion in the same month last year, exports stood at 94% of the year-earlier level, remaining slightly below the previous year.
For the January–March cumulative period, exports reached JPY 3.043 billion, equivalent to 133% of the same period last year, maintaining levels above the previous year.
■ Breakdown by Destination
● China
JPY 1.017 billion, equivalent to 94% of the previous month level, remaining firm despite a modest decline.
Compared with the same month last year, exports stood at 277% of the year-earlier level.
China accounted for approximately 98% of total export value.
→ The overwhelming concentration of export value toward China became even more pronounced.
● Taiwan
JPY 4 million, remaining at an extremely low level.
Equivalent to 5% of the previous month level and 5% of the same month last year.
→ Supplementary demand remained weak.
● India
JPY 3 million, equivalent to 4% of the previous month level and 1% of the year-earlier level.
→ The decline in Indian demand became increasingly evident in value terms as well.
● Other Destinations
JPY 14 million, equivalent to 5,109% of the previous month level, though still limited in absolute terms.
Equivalent to 16% of the year-earlier level.
→ Spot shipments continued on a limited basis.
■ Cumulative Breakdown (January–March)
• China: JPY 2.796 billion (303% of the same period last year)
• Taiwan: JPY 5 million (4%)
• India: JPY 142 million (13%)
• Others: JPY 14 million (8%)
• Total: JPY 3.043 billion (133%)
→ China alone exceeded the previous year substantially, while weakness in other destinations limited broader market expansion.
■ Summary
In March, export value declined from February but remained at a relatively high level.
Structurally, China’s overwhelming dominance deepened further, accounting for nearly all exports, while India and Thailand effectively disappeared from the market.
As a result, the market increasingly reflects a “high-level but highly concentrated China-dependent structure” in value terms as well.
(Table 2,).
【FOB Trend】
The overall average FOB price declined from JPY 318/kg in February to JPY 311/kg in March, softening slightly.
■ FOB Trend by Major Destination
• China: JPY 311 → JPY 309/kg, slightly lower
• Taiwan: No practical comparison available due to negligible volume
• India: JPY 309 → JPY 291/kg, lower
■ External Environment
Although the yen remained weak, providing some support to export pricing:
• LME Lead: USD 1,916/t → USD 1,880/t, lower
→ International lead prices softened.
■ Overall Assessment
In March, yen-denominated FOB prices eased modestly, reflecting weaker international lead prices.
Despite continued yen weakness, the decline in LME lead prices outweighed currency support, resulting in a mild adjustment in export pricing.
At the same time, the sharp concentration toward China likely contributed to stabilizing the overall FOB level, preventing a steeper decline.
(Graphs 3).
International Bullion Price Trend (USD/T) – 3 Months
Quantity and FOB Performance by Major Customs Offices
(Figures in parentheses indicate the previous month)
Quantity and FOB (JPY/kg) by Major Destination Country
(Figures in parentheses indicate the previous month)
【Outlook】
• China dependence expected to continue
The overwhelming concentration of exports toward China is expected to remain unchanged for the time being. Since China currently accounts for virtually all shipments, overall export conditions will continue to depend heavily on Chinese procurement trends.
• Export volumes likely to remain high but volatile
Although shipment volumes are expected to stay at relatively elevated levels, the spot-oriented nature of transactions suggests continued fluctuations within an approximate 3,000–4,000 ton monthly range.
• Prices likely to remain firm but with limited upside
While the weak yen may continue to support export pricing, softer LME lead prices suggest limited upward momentum. FOB prices are therefore expected to move within a range centered around JPY300/kg.
• Domestic battery scrap market to remain a key supporting factor
Tight supply conditions in Japan’s lead battery scrap market and the continued strength of nest lead (secondary crude lead / bullion) prices are likely to support exports of crude lead. Continued competition for feedstock among domestic smelters and overseas-linked operators may sustain elevated export availability.
• Key risk factors
Should Chinese import regulations tighten, environmental policies shift, domestic battery scrap supply improve, or exchange rates reverse direction, both export volumes and pricing may become increasingly volatile.
■Overall Outlook
The most likely near-term scenario is a “high-level but highly China-dependent market, with prices remaining broadly stable despite moderate adjustment pressure.”
(IRUNIVERSE S. Aoyama)
