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FX Trend (TTS, 3-month)
(Detailed Analysis)
■Volume Basis
Exports in January 2026 totaled 5,204 tons,
down to 86% m/m from 6,031 tons in December,
but up sharply to 136% y/y, well above the year-ago level.
Despite the monthly pullback, volumes remained elevated for the start of the year,
→ indicating a firm underlying tone.
■By Major Destination
●China
3,329 tons,
down to 80% m/m but up 360% y/y.
Accounting for roughly 64% of total exports,
→ China remains the overwhelming core market.
________________________________________
●South Korea
647 tons,
down to 69% m/m but up 126% y/y.
→ Maintains a certain level within spot-driven demand.
________________________________________
●Taiwan
650 tons,
surging to 344% m/m and 223% y/y.
→ Suggests a temporary recovery in procurement.
________________________________________
●Vietnam
Zero tons (down from 301 tons in December).
→ Indicates non-recurring, spot-type shipments.
________________________________________
●Thailand
9 tons, effectively negligible.
→ Continued weakness.
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●India
546 tons,
up to 121% m/m and 39% y/y.
→ Showing a gradual recovery from low levels.
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●Others
23 tons, limited activity.
→ Essentially converging to minimal levels.
■Summary
Although volumes declined m/m, January posted a sharp increase y/y,
→ marking a strong start to the year at elevated levels.
Structurally:
• China maintains a dominant share exceeding 60%
• Taiwan and India show signs of recovery
• South Korea remains supplementary
• Other regions remain unstable or weak
This further underscores a
→ China-centered export structure with limited diversification.
Sustained strength in shipments to China continues to underpin the overall market,
→ suggesting that China dependency will remain high in the near term.
(Table 1, Graph 1)
■Share of Volume (December → January)
• China: 69% → 64%
• South Korea: 15% → 12%
• Taiwan: 3% → 12%
• Vietnam: 5% → 0%
• Thailand: 0% → 0%
• India: 7% → 10%
• Others: 0% → 0%
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■Additional Notes
While China remained dominant, its share eased slightly from ~70% to the mid-60% range.
Meanwhile:
• Taiwan rebounded sharply (3% → 12%)
• India also gained share (7% → 10%)
This indicates partial diversification, though limited.
Vietnam returned to zero, and other destinations remained negligible,
→ suggesting a China-led structure with short-term fluctuations in peripheral markets.
(Graph 2)
■Value Basis
Total export value in January reached JPY 1.593 billion,
down to 88% m/m, but up 140% y/y.
Cumulative exports for Jan–Dec 2025 stood at JPY 16.192 billion, up 107% y/y.
China was the primary driver:
• China: JPY 1.024 billion, up 366% y/y (~64% share)
Other destinations:
• South Korea: JPY 192 million (+124% y/y)
• Taiwan: JPY 191 million (+225% y/y)
• India: JPY 165 million (42% y/y, below year-ago level)
Overall, despite the m/m decline,
→ strong y/y growth was sustained, led by China.
(Table 2, Graph 3)
■FOB Prices
The overall average FOB price rose from JPY 302/kg in December to JPY 306/kg in January,
marking a third consecutive monthly increase.
________________________________________
■FOB by Destination
• China: JPY 302 → JPY 307 (increase)
• South Korea: JPY 298 → JPY 297 (slight decline)
• Taiwan: JPY 292 → JPY 294 (increase)
• Thailand: JPY 1,282 → JPY 476 (sharp decline, reflecting correction from the previous month’s spike)
• India: JPY 306 → JPY 302 (slight decline)
• Others: No shipments → JPY 745 (spot-driven high level)
________________________________________
■External Price Trends
• LME Lead: USD 1,942 → USD 1,998 (modest increase)
• Crude lead (bullion) international price: USD 1,844 → USD 1,898 (also trending slightly higher)
________________________________________
■Overall Assessment
In January, the average FOB price continued to rise, reaching the mid-JPY 300/kg range.
While increases in shipments to China supported the overall trend,
FOB prices for South Korea and India showed slight adjustments.
Meanwhile, Thailand saw a correction from the previous month’s exceptional high,
and a spot-driven high price emerged in “Others”,
→ indicating that price fluctuations were influenced by individual transactions,
while the overall trend remained firm and upward.
Against the backdrop of continued yen weakness,
→ USD-denominated FOB prices are likely to have remained flat to slightly higher.
________________________________________
(Graphs 4 and 5)
Crude Lead (Bullion) International Price Trend (USD/t, 3 months)
Export Volumes and FOB by Major Customs (JPY/kg) (Graphs in parentheses indicate previous month)
Export Volumes and FOB by Country (JPY/kg) (Graphs in parentheses indicate previous month)
■Outlook
• China-led structure to persist
• Volumes remain high but volatile (4,000–6,000 ton range)
• South Korea and Taiwan remain secondary markets
• Prices supported but capped around JPY 300/kg range
• Risks: China policy shifts, FX reversal
→ Overall,
a China-dependent, high-level but volatile market remains the base scenario.
(IRUNIVERSE S. Aoyama)
