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Aluminium alloy & scrap market recent developments 2023#3 Scrap up ¥10-20 in the first half of February

Aluminium scrap prices for the first half of February at aluminium alloy manufacturers varied from 10 to 20 yen per kg for top scrap and remained flat or raised by 5 to 10 yen per kg for bottom scrap, but as reported in the previous issue, with the rise of Chinese dealers and the export-dominated market, it is clear that scrap prices will continue to be driven higher. The market is dominated by exports mainly from Chinese dealers, as reported in the previous issue, and scrap is likely to be driven to higher prices.

 

Outlook for the aluminium alloy and scrap market in 2023: Sunny, cloudy or heavy rain? 

 

In the Kansai region this time, the largest company, Daiki, raised its prices by 20 yen for top-grade scrap and 10 yen for low-grade scrap, while other companies either remained unchanged or raised their prices by only 5 yen.

In the Kanto region, the tops have been raised by 10 yen, and the skirted fabrics by either flat or 10 yen, but they are becoming nominalised in line with the export situation. Basically. exports of both bottom and top-quality products have been slightly higher. 

 

LME aluminium market price ( $/ton) and NSP market price (Ј/kg)

Blue LME Al, Red Nikkei Al Bullion

 

The LME aluminium market price and NSP market price, which serve as indices, have stabilised after rising since mid-January, as shown in the chart above; the LME price is in the $2500-ton range and the NSP price is around ¥400 per kg, with the upper series leaning towards higher prices, as per the theoretical values.

 

shift of Chinese ADC12 ($/ton) and domestic ADC12 prices (¥/kg) 

Blue CIF/Japan (high) (Chinese ADC12 (CIF/Japan $/ton))  Red  High (Domestic ADC12 ¥/kg)

 

Chinese ADC12 is also stable at around USD 2500 per ton. The price of ADC from the Middle East has been as low as $50/ton since the last report, and the price of $2500 ADC arriving at Japanese ports when contracted at ¥128/ton is around ¥335/kg. The price of ADC is also falling. In other words, the market is on a path of high raw material prices and low product prices, which is the same path it has been on for some time.

However, this could have been overcome if demand had been high, but high raw material prices and low product prices in the absence of growth in demand are thought to be very damaging for alloy manufacturers.

 

Aluminium scrap on the market is under threat from exports in all varieties. The standard B-sashes and UBCs, not to mention aluminium wheels, are also trading at high prices as the occurrence of ELVs in Japan continues to decline. Company M, which specialises in aluminium wheels, is said to have experienced a critical decline in the amount of aluminium wheels collected since autumn last year. The market price for wheel mix is around 290 yen; B-sashes are 250-260 yen. 

 

B Sash and aluminium foil scrap (MIX) market price changes (/kg)

Red Aluminium MIX Blue B Sash MIX

 

(Related articles)

[Trade Statistics/Japan] Japan's aluminium scrap import and export statistics for December 2022            

 

Japanese website is here

 

 (IRUNIVERSE/MIRUcom YT, translated Marcin)

 

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